How many things do you do in a day?
I’m talking everything. Imagine if you actually consciously counted them. What’s the Over/Under on “Actions Taken: You” in a 24-hour span?
Open your eyes. Roll over. Get out of bed. Walk to bathroom. Open door. Open drawer. Grab toothbrush. Turn on sink. Brush teeth. Rinse brush. Put toothbrush away. Close drawer. Turn. Walk out of bathroom.
That’s 14 things, in a roughly 2-minute span before doing ANYTHING in a day.
Now this is #NotAMathNewsletter, but let’s do some calculating here.
14 things in 2 minutes. Times 30 for the first hour of the day. Wake up at 7, go to sleep at Midnight, that’s 17 hours awake.
14 times 2 times 17.
That’s 7,140 things I do a day.
Now let’s think about a week. That’s 49,980.
How about a year? That’s 18,242,700 things done a year. 18 MILLION!
I’m 31 years old. Hohhhhh boy.
That’s 565,523,700 things I have done in my life. 565 Million things done.
God I’m impressive.
Now out of those 565 Million things, I wonder how many of them would be considered “impressive”.
Here’s a few that come to mind (in chronological order):
threw a no-hitter in my first ever baseball “start” as a pitcher in 5th grade
won 100* straight games of 2 on 2 vs. Zach Hurth and Nick Clark in my driveway in high school
sold out a rap show at The Loft in Lansing
got a perfect score on the English portion** of the ACT
self-taught myself how to play Marvin’s Room by Drake on piano
hit a three-leg underdog parlay for $37,000
won the Grilled Cheese Cook-Off at my former corporate job with my original recipe: Breakfast Grilled Cheese
became a father
hosted a show at the Final Four from the Red Couch
shot a 79 at Angel’s Crossing
*game 97 is a disputed win
**don’t ask about the Math portion
So hypothetically….let’s say those are the ONLY 10 things that qualify as “impressive” that I have ever done in my life. That may be a little harsh…but it might not be that far off.
That means exactly 10 of the 525 Million + things I have done are impressive. That’s 0.000002%.
That’s not a lot!
So where the hell am I headed with all of this? Well folks, this week I had a realization.
Thanks to this girl.
Murph did something so cool this week. But so tangibly unimpressive. But the most impressive thing I’ve ever seen.
She took her first steps.
Now this was big for a couple of reasons.
#1, It’s about damn time. Girl has the feet of freshman Hunter Dickinson.
#2, She’s been TRYING! This poor girl has been STANDING and STANDING and STANDING and LEANING and MANEUVERING and BALANCING…..and falling on her face.
This has happened so. many. times.
And when she falls, it’s the cutest damn thing.
Cuz then she laughs. And then she gets up. And then she tries again. And then she falls again. And then she laughs again. And then she gets up again.
And suddenly this week…..steps. I have never been more proud. It feels like my team just won a national championship.
Moral of the story is this:
Just because something might not seem impressive at first glance, that doesn’t mean it isn’t. My 0.000002% “impressive” hit rate is probably a lot higher in the eyes of my father.
And you can’t get to the truly impressive WOW things without doing all the regular, every day, mundane, boring, unimpressive things along the way.
There will be a WOW week for this newsletter this season. There will be a huge parlay win. Even if we have to fall, and laugh, and get up again a few times first.
Baby steps.
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: 7-11 (-4.56 Units)
CART RECORD: 2-3 (-0.75 Units)
GREG WINS:
BYU +10.5 at SMU (FRIDAY) (-110)
Duke +3 at Northwestern (FRIDAY, -110)
Duke ML (+120)
Texas -7 at Michigan (-125)
Tulane +10 (-115) vs. Kansas State
Ohio State -38 vs. Western Michigan (-112)
Boise State +19 at Oregon (-110)
GREG LOSSES:
Arkansas +7.5 at Oklahoma State
Tulane ML (+300)
Georgia Tech -3 vs. Syracuse (-110)
Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa State (-112)
Maryland -8 vs. Michigan State (-110)
Utah -14 vs. Baylor (-110)
Nevada ML (+102) vs. Georgia Southern
NC State +8 vs. Tennessee (-112)
Colorado +7.5 at Nebraska (-115)
Week 2 Favorites Parlay: (+264)
Week 2 Underdogs Parlay: (+11590)
CART WINS:
Duke +120 vs Northwestern
Texas -9.5 +105 vs Michigan
CART LOSSES:
Iowa -2.5 vs Iowa State (-110)
NC State +8 vs Tennessee (-110)
Colorado +7.5 vs Nebraska
SEASON RECORDS:
GREG RECORD: 15-18 (-1.68 Units)
CART RECORD: 4-4 (+0.05 Units)
GREG’S PICKS:
15 plays from me plus a parlay….some of these get cute. Be warned.
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Arizona +7.5 (-112) at Kansas State (Friday)
Arizona ML (+235)
I was thoroughly unimpressed with Kansas State last week when we backed Tulane to cover and beat them. Tulane blew the game late (with a questionable pass interference call and a bad turnover in scoring distance), but I thought they outplayed them. The biggest vulnerability has been Kansas State’s pass defense - they allowed 342 yards passing to true freshman QB Darian Mensah last week. Receivers and tight ends were wide open all game long. Enter Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan. They should eat…I think Zona can steal this one on the road but I LOVE the key number at +7.5.
Alabama -15.5 vs. Wisconsin (-110)
Alabama struggled until late….and won by 26 against USF. Wisconsin struggled Week 1 and was trailing in the 4th quarter against Western Michigan. In Week 2, they beat South Dakota by just 14. This is a bit of a gut feel play but Bama under three scores against a gross Wisconsin team (especially when Bama should be motivated..) is a must-play for me.
Michigan vs. Arkansas State UNDER 45.5 (-110)
You have heard me write about this if you have been reading this newsletter this year but Michigan Unders feel automatic especially in the non-conference this year. Last season with JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum and Roman Wilson this team’s three non-conference games all went Under this number. This year, both games have gone Under this number. Arkansas State won’t be able to run this game at all…Michigan’s offense couldn’t score 40 if it tried. You have to keep taking these Unders.
Boston College +17 at Missouri (-112)
KEY FOOTBALL NUMBER ALERT! 17 is a great number, and I am buying Boston College big time. Yes, Florida State has issues but BC still stomped them impressively. Then more impressively they beat Duquesne 56-0. Thomas Castellanos is a true dual threat stud at QB…Missouri is good but this line is juiced up due to Mizzou’s back to back shutout wins. BC scores early, everyone on Mizzou gets a little tight and Castellanos makes plays with his legs to keep it close from start to finish.
Purdue +10.5 vs. Notre Dame (-112)
Weeeeeeird spot here. In theory it should be a bounce back for Notre Dame…butttttt I have a suspicion that Notre Dame may just stink. They outplayed Texas A&M on the road but A&M’s quarterback seems like a dingus and Riley Leonard has been awful. Reports are that Leonard is hurt and will “try to play”….but this one seems iffy. Meanwhile, Purdue had a full week to prep for this after having a BYE in Week 2. Notre Dame has ZERO (0) passing touchdowns through two weeks with a healthy QB, now they have a banged up one. Purdue can cover a TD and a FG at home.
Tulane +14.5 at Oklahoma (-135)
I’m buying a point here to get a full two touchdowns…I love this Tulane team. Wrote about them a bit in the Kansas State section but they controlled that game from start to finish then let it slip with some costly mistakes and bad luck late. Tulane brought back two legitimately good QBs from a good team last year…and they both got beat out by a true freshman STUD named Darian Mensah. He plays like Shedeur Sanders if Shedeur didn’t know he was Shedeur Sanders. Their RB is also a total superstar named Malaki Hughes. This is one of the best and most fun backfields in all of college football. Oklahoma was nearly beaten by a dreadful Houston team last week….a Houston team that lost by 20 to UNLV…then only lost to Oklahoma by four. Oklahoma has problems. Tulane has talent. 14.5 points is too many.
Florida +4.5 vs. Texas A&M (-112)
Florida ML (+154)
Florida looked more like the team many hoped they would be this season in Week 2, stomping Samford 45-7 at the Swamp. The big change with the Gators since their disaster season opener to Miami is the emergence of DJ Lagway, a much more talented option at quarterback than returning starter Graham Mertz. Mertz missed Week 2 with a concussion, and while Billy Napier says he plans to play both quarterbacks, a changing of the guard may be exactly what this Gators team needs to turn the corner. And their opponent this week, the Texas A&M Aggies, still have their own quarterback questions to answer. Conner Weigman took over under center and struggled mightily against Notre Dame in Week 1, going 12 for 30 through the air for just 100 yards and two interceptions. The same Notre Dame defense that Northern Illinois found cracks in. Last week Weigman was better in a game they did not need to throw the ball much, but only totaled 125 yards passing against McNeese. If Lagway gets a chance here, the Gators can pull off a massive victory at home.
Colorado State +7.5 vs. Colorado (-125)
Colorado State ML (+230)
Colorado State to win by 19-24 (+3000)
Okay this is the BODY LANGUAGE PHD talking…in fact it’s screaming. This Deion Sanders Era is going to fall apart and crash and burn, and I think this is the week. As a team, the Rams have found success on the ground this year so far. They average 4.8 yards per attempt and have 342 yards through two games. Those numbers are more impressive when you consider one of their two games was a blowout loss to Texas, and game flow called for plenty of throwing from behind. Colorado has allowed big games from lead backs twice this year, allowing North Dakota State's Cam Miller to pop off for 81 yards and two touchdowns, then Nebraska's Dante Dowdell to post 74 yards and two touchdowns of his own. Expect the Rams to establish the run early, and then put all the pressure on the shoulders of Shedeur Sanders, who is happy to throw his offensive line under the bus this week. A body language meltdown may be in store for Travis Hunter, Sanders and the whole Colorado team if Colorado State can throw some adversity their way in the first half. Given how close last year's game was, this is fantastic value on the home side….and I’m taking a deep shot here….Colorado State may win by three scores. 30 to 1.
UCLA +3 vs. Indiana (+3000)
UCLA ML (+136)
There is no team that has been less-tested in college football this season than Indiana, who needed a late breakaway rush to cover against FIU in Week 1 and then blitzed a Western Illinois program that has been winless for the last two and a half seasons. This is a big spot for Cignetti, but also new UCLA offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy (former Chiefs, Commanders OC), whose offense looked awful back in Week 1 against Hawaii. After a scoreless first half in their first game, UCLA found some answers in the second, scoring on four of their final drives and eeking out a win in Honolulu. With Week 2 off to prep for this one, the wrong team is favored here. UCLA at home in a primetime spot off a week to prep at plus money is great value, especially when the Hoosiers realize they're playing someone their own size for the first time this season.
Maryland -2.5 at Virginia (-112)
Simple one here - I am buying a Maryland rebound after their MSU loss last week. I think they are a good football team…Michigan State just hit some huge plays. I don’t trust Virginia to do the same, there’s no Nick Marsh there.
Week 3 Underdogs Parlay: (+28170)
Underdog Parlay: UCLA ML, Colorado State ML, Florida ML, Arizona ML, Purdue ML
All of these are written about above, and all of them minus Purdue are being bet by me as solo plays. Let’s combine them and shoot for the stars.
Now over to my favorite co-host and newsletter betting partneSHUT UP AND PODCAST CART I DONT FOLLOW YOU FOR POLITICS
CART’S PICKS:
I truly enjoy reading anything Gregory writes but the kid truly is special at many things but he's surely one of one with the pen there is no denying that. It raised a question in my head to what am I special at? And the answer to that isn’t one attribute or skill. I am special at being Carter Elliott and though it may sound conceited it truly is what separates me. I am always me and I’m always genuine and to my surprise people love that. So let me take this time in my attempt at an intro to let you know that being you, being genuine, and working hard (and knowing Greg) can get you places. Also let it be known that sometimes that one more moscow mule leads to intros like you see above. Let's get to the picks.
(There is only 4 picks because I know Greg gave you a lot and lowkey this slate stinks)
*WEEKLY DISCLAIMER* There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known)
Arizona +7.5 vs Kansas State
Kansas State (though I was high on them preseason) has been fairly unimpressive early on in the season as they escaped Tulane last weekend but that isn’t the main reason why I like Arizona to cover in this game because honestly Tulane is a good football team. It’s what Arizona can do offensively with Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan against a defense that was getting lit up last weekend through the air. I think Arizona has a chance to do the same in this game and also I love the +7.5 number.
Notre Dame -10 vs Purdue
There was a world where I was very much ready to take Purdue in this game coming off a bye week and Notre Dame coming in undefeated but alas Notre Dame laid an egg at home against a massive favorite and are coming off a loss. Is this bad for Notre Dame (I will let you answer that), but I for one am thankful because I like Notre Dame to come out angry and motivated and take it out on Purdue. The biggest downside of Hudson Card is his inconsistency and after looking incredible in week one history says he may not play well in this game and the Notre Dame defense is not one you want to play if you aren’t going to bring your A game. After an offensive game plan that was miserable last week I look for Marcus Freeman to bounce back in a big way with a double digit win where they run the ball extremely effectively and turn Hudson Card and the Boilermakers over.
UCLA +3 vs Indiana
UCLA +136 vs Indiana
This is a show me game for Cignetti and crew as they go on the road to play UCLA in the first Big Ten game of the Cignetti era. Now I know UCLA struggled in Week One but it is never easy to play the first game of the year on the road in Hawaii. UCLA has an extra week to prepare for this game, they are at home, and Indiana has been the beneficiary of playing 2 bad opponents at home. I think UCLA can cover in the game and also wins outright.
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