A lot can change in a year.
For example, this was last year in October:
Presented by Carhartt.
This was yesterday!
Look at that!!!!!!! I mean goodness!!!!!! What a change!!!!
My beard is so much fuller this year, isn’t it crazy?
Last year for Rivalry Week, I took my Dad (lifelong Michigan football fan) to East Lansing to watch Michigan vs. Michigan State.
When I told him I got us tickets, he said AND I QUOTE:
“There’s no way I’m going to that game”
In his mind, he wanted no part of being the Michigan fan in East Lansing that gets yelled at all game.
After some coercing, he agreed. My pitch was “You might win a national championship this year, you’ll always be able to say you were in the building when your best team ever stomped your rival”.
It was a good pitch.
I mean, look at that shit-eating grin:
That’s a man who knows his football team is about to win by 45+.
Michigan destroyed the Spartans, our scoreboard operator put up HITLER TRIVIA (not a joke), and we stood in line for Raising Cane’s until 1AM after.
Meanwhile, I just wanted everyone to play by the rules:
Okay, photo time is over. But you get my point.
You never know what’s going to happen a year from now.
Last year at this time:
Jim Harbaugh coached Michigan
NobodyHarlon Barnett coached Michigan StateMel Tucker was in hiding
Connor Stalions was in hiding
Illinois football was 3-5
Curt Cignetti was coaching James Madison
Matt Painter was “a fraud” in March
Mark Pope coached at BYU
I had two full-time jobs that weren’t Sleepers
my daughter couldn’t walk
Carter’s wife wasn’t even pregnant yet
my beard wasn’t as full as it is now
That’s a lot of weird twists and turns!
Rivalry Week defines legacies. One win or one loss in this game at the wrong time can change your entire career.
Aidan Chiles has a chance this week to make everyone forget about all the interceptions, and become The Guy That Beat Michigan Right Away.
Jack Tuttle (or Alex Orji, or Davis Warren, but definitely DEFINITELY not Jadyn Davis) has a chance this week to make everyone calm down for two hours and enjoy football again. And maybe save Sherrone Moore’s job.
A year ago Aidan Chiles probably didn’t know a thing about this game. Now it could define the way he is remembered for the rest of his life.
That’s crazy if you think about it.
I think back to where I was a year ago, and if you told me that I wasn’t working any jobs other than Sleepers right now, I probably would have fainted.
If you told me my daughter could say “I love you” and “hi” and “Dada” by now, I would have cried.
If you told me Jim Harbaugh would leave before the NCAA stuffed him in a locker for the next 10 years and that Connor Stalions would be coaching an 0-6 high school team while his Netflix tell-all flops, I would have said “I told you so”
Life changes quickly. All we can do is do our best, embrace the twists and turns, and enjoy the ride.
When you throw an interception, keep throwing. You might just win the game anyway.
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: 7-5 (+2.04 Units)
CART RECORD: 2-2 (-0.18 Units)
GREG WINS:
Indiana -6.5 vs. Nebraska (-115)
Illinois +3 vs. Michigan (-108)
Florida +1 vs. Kentucky (-110)
South Carolina +3 at Oklahoma (-110)
Florida -2.5 (+106)
Illinois ML (+124)
South Carolina ML (+114)
GREG LOSSES:
BYU -9.5 vs. Oklahoma State (-112)
Georgia Tech +12 vs. Notre Dame (-110)
Arkansas +3 vs. LSU (-115)
Arkansas ML (+114)
UNDERDOG PARLAY
CART WINS:
Miami -4.5 vs Louisville (-110)
Florida -1 vs Kentucky (-110)
CART LOSSES:
Missouri -4.5 vs Auburn (-110)
Alabama -3 vs Tennessee (-110)
SEASON RECORDS:
GREG RECORD: 47-62-2 (-9.79 Units)
CART RECORD: 9-12 (-3.01 Units)
GREG’S PICKS:
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Editor’s note: It’s a small card for me this week, just six plays from five games I’m dialing in on plus an Underdog parlay that I’m only betting two legs of individually:
Indiana -6.5 vs. Washington (-110)
Cignetti is 7-0 ATS and a bum WR just quit his team mid-season. He’s still pissed. COLLEGE GAMEDAY IS IN BLOOMINGTON. If your card doesn’t start with IU to cover this week, you aren’t invited to my birthday party. The reason this is under a touchdown is that Washington grades out as the #1 pass defense in the country…but that’s only because they have played Northwestern, Rutgers, Iowa and Michigan in their last four games. Those four teams couldn’t throw a touchdown unguarded. Hoosiers will win this big, like they always do.
Navy +13 vs. Nore Dame (-110)
Simple one here, I’m buying the service academies as for real. They are both undefeated, cracked the polls finally, and this feels like a game that Navy can dictate pace from start to finish. I still don’t trust ND. All in on the option here to keep it close.
BYU ML at UCF +105
UCF has lost four straight. BYU is undefeated, but is coming off a wake-up call victory over Oklahoma State at home last week. They had extra rest as that was a Friday game. UCF benched KJ Jefferson and has a bad young QB that threw for 80 yards and had two picks last week. Bounce back performance from the better team here with a lot more to play for. Plus money is insanely disrespectful.
Vanderbilt +18.5 vs. Texas (-108)
TOO MANY POINTS. DIEGO PAVIA HIVE STAND UP. Texas rocks, and I do expect a bounce back, but great quarterbacks find ways to keep this close. Vandy beat Alabama…if this game isn’t within two touchdowns I will be completely stunned.
Michigan State +4 at Michigan -110
MSU ML +142
Copying and pasting my entire writeup from my Action Network Round Robin piece this week. Food for thought:
The first edition of Smith vs. Moore takes place in Ann Arbor, where Michigan has narrowly avoided disaster already twice this season, surviving against Minnesota and USC at home by three points in each game.
Michigan is just 1-6 against the spread on the season, and they continue to be one of the worst values in the sport.
The primary reason for Michigan's demise is how one-dimensional their offense has become. Sherrone Moore has cycled through three quarterbacks already, and will not name a starter mid-week before this game.
The only area that Michigan can find consistent success in is their running game, where they rank 32nd nationally in Rush Success Rate. The problem this week? Michigan State is even better defensively against the run.
The Spartans rank 25th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, and they bottled up Iowa superstar running back Kaleb Johnson last week, holding Johnson to 23 yards rushing on 13 attempts (outside of one 75-yard run late in the 4th quarter after Michigan State had separated on the scoreboard).
Michigan State has the better quarterback, the better coach, and the advantage in the one area that Michigan does well offensively. Back the Spartans.
UNDERDOG PARLAY (+4072)
BYU ML (+105)
Wisconsin ML (+190) vs. Penn State
Texas Tech ML (+190) at TCU
Michigan State ML (+142)
Not betting these individually this week outside of BYU and Michigan State (written about above). Wisconsin has been incredible lately, they have outscored their last three opponents by a score of 117-16. They will make that interesting against Penn State. Then Texas Tech is in a big bounce back spot against a TCU offense that struggles to keep up with high-scoring opponents. Let it rock.
Now over to a man I affectionately refer to as Derrick Twix:
CARTER ELLIOTT:
Today’s statement is that if you don’t know how to operate a motor vehicle at a 4 way stop or at a round-about stay off the road. Let’s get to the picks.
*WEEKLY DISCLAIMER* There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known)
Navy +12.5 vs Notre Dame
This is a respect play by me. Navy’s team has been fun and the offense has been very explosive this season. I don’t think Notre Dame’s offense is great enough to blow a team out with an offense with the firepower that Navy has. This is also damn near a rivalry game so getting double digit points I love in this spot.
Indiana -6.5 vs Washington
Washington may have the number 1 pass defense in the country and Indiana might be down their starting QB who leads the number 1 passing offense in the country BUTTTTTTTTTT the reason Washington has that number 1 passing defense is because every team they have played could have me starting at QB. Indiana is a football school, Washington isn’t good, Tayven Jackson is related to Trayce. Take the hoosiers to cover.
BYU +3 (buy a point) vs UCF
We are buying a point to get to a football number but in all honesty this will be a moneyline play from Big Mapquest. BYU had their scare last weekend at home and were able to pull that game off. I'm banking on this UCF team being the one we saw play Florida not the one that had their super bowl versus Iowa State. I like BYU to handle business on the road against a team in UCF that has to be feeling defeated after letting one against Iowa State slip away.
Michigan State +3.5 vs Michigan
Michigan State is coming off a big win at home against Iowa where Aidan Chiles had himself a day and the defense made one of the better offensive lines and running backs in the country really struggle. Michigan on the other hand is in somewhat of a freefall with QB issues, injury concerns, Coach being soft blocking people on twitter, and it seems the rushing attack is slowing down which makes Michigan's offense obsolete. I like Michigan State to cover on the road in this rivalry game.
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