You ever wonder what other people think when they first meet you?
One of my many major flaws is that I often care too much what other people think of me. With this deficiency comes an inherent over-thinking of many things, but one common hypothetical that I find myself pondering from time to time is how I first appear to people.
The more I think about it, the more I realize that timing is truly everything with first impressions.
People are complicated - what you see isn’t always what you get. If you catch someone at their WORST moment you may come away like “damn that guy is a giant asshole”, but if you catch someone at their BEST moment you may end up podcasting with them for 7 years and staying up at 1:30AM ET on a Tuesday morning to write 18 picks for a damn newsletter that he writes 3 for (who’s counting).
Let’s use my wife for an example.
Actually, let’s not “use my wife” (see this would be an example of me at my worst).
Let’s go back in time to the night that my wife first met me.
This is what I looked like. Now I am not saying this pic is anything special - but you gotta admit - the boy could rock a v-neck striped sweater and a silver cross chain.
That fit screams “maybe one day he could turn into a handsome husband type that hits parlays and owns a blackstone”.
Thank God she met me that night and not…this night.
Yes that’s me. I went as “Jesus” for Halloween. My roommate went as Tim Tebow and we went around telling people were best friends. I thought it was funny and not at all offensive. There’s a good chance there are some people out there who met me in the JESUS SUIT instead of in the striped sweater. They likely had an entirely different first impression of me than my wife did, rightfully so.
Life takes some luck. Timing is truly everything. The right things have to happen at the right times with the right first impressions otherwise the sequence of events that becomes your life can end up completely different. Often times you don’t even have control over it - or maybe you do, you just don’t realize it. Sometimes you have to make your own luck.
What does any of this have to do with football? Or betting, or this newsletter?
Well, a couple things.
For starters, Week 1 was our first impression of pretty much every team and player in the country this season. I learned some things:
Luke Altmyer is good and not “shitty” as my old first impression told me
Michigan is New Michigan and not Old Michigan
Aidan Chiles might be Joe Milton
Miller Moss is special
Colorado throws the ball when they should kneel it
Texas and Alabama are title contenders
Lane Kiffin is a maniac
Drew Allar gets a bad rap
Florida State is cooked
How many of these first impressions will actually be the true versions of each of them? We’ll learn more in Week 2 but I have my suspicions.
And secondly, and most importantly for my own selfish pursuits….
If you checked my betting record from LAST WEEK’S NEWSLETTER at the end of the Michigan State game last Friday night, you would have seen that I started the season 0-5, down 5 units immediately.
That would have been a bad first impression.
On Saturday I went 7-1 and finished Week 1 up almost 3 units, cashing 2 out of 3 parlays in the process.
Timing matters. “Luck” matters.
It’s time to put on our striped sweaters and make our own luck.
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: 8-7 (+2.88 Units)
CART RECORD: 2-1 (+0.8 Units)
GREG WINS:
Stanford +9 (-110) vs. TCU
Oklahoma State -9.5 (-112) vs. South Dakota State
Indiana -21.5 (-112) vs. FIU
Akron +50 (-112) vs. Ohio State
Michigan vs. Fresno State U46 (-112)
Notre Dame ML (+124) at Texas A&M
Take Care of Business All Weekend Favorites Parlay: (+350)
WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE DAKOTAS? PARLAY: (-149)
GREG LOSSES:
Colorado -9.5 (-110) vs. North Dakota State
Minnesota ML (+110) vs. North Carolina
Eastern Illinois +28 (-110) vs. Illinois
Eastern Illinois ML (+2500)
Michigan State -13.5 (-115) vs. Florida Atlantic
Stanford ML (+260)
Week 1 Longshot Parlay: (+9674)
CART WINS:
Notre Dame +3 vs Texas A&M (-110)
Oklahoma State -9.5 vs South Dakota State (-112)
CART LOSSES:
Colorado -9.5 vs North Dakota State (-110)
GREG’S PICKS:
18 total picks this week. Seriously. Goodness. But I really love the slate that much.
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
BYU +10.5 at SMU (FRIDAY) (-110)
We last paid attention to SMU in Week 0 where they nearly lost at Nevada while benching returning star QB Preston Stone…well….turns out they’re gonna do that all year. They want to play a 2 QB system, say it with me: EWWWWWWW!!!! BYU is 4-0 all-time vs. SMU, picked up a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois last week, and their QB Jake Retzlaff was awesome (348 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). BYU is 4-2 ATS in last 6 games as double digit underdogs - this is a really really friendly number at 10.5 for the underdog on Friday.
Duke +3 at Northwestern (FRIDAY, -110)
Duke ML (+120)
Both teams completely shut down their opponents’ run games in Week 1. Duke held Elon to 36 yards rushing (0.8 YPC) in their 26-3 win. Northwestern held Miami (Ohio) to just 40 yards rushing (1.7 YPC) in their 13-6 win. Sooo advantage to the team that can throw. Texas transfer turned Duke QB Maalik Murphy threw for 291 yards on 40 attempts and 2 TDs. Northwestern QB Mike Wright threw foe 178 yards on 30 attempts and 0 TDs. I also think the shine of Northwestern’s tiny new lakeside stadium is going to wear off here and the crowd will be underwhelming now that everyone realizes it’s a shitty viewing experience. I’m going both spread and ML.
Texas -7 at Michigan (-125)
Can’t overthink this one, although I am going to buy it down to -7 for safety. This game reminds me an awful lot of last week’s Miami at Florida game. High-profile, high-attention game between a talented team with a star at QB on the road against the game manager that everyone knows stinks in a hostile environment…Quinn Ewers and Texas are my national championship pick. Respectfully…Davis Warren poses no threat. This is the Texas team that went on the road to Alabama in Week 2 and won 34-24. You know, the SEC champion, CFP-bound Alabama…not whatever this version of Michigan is. Sing along, Michigan fans: “I just can’t loooook…it’s killinggggg meeeeeeeeee” (Mr. Brightside voice but we’re talking about Davis Warren).
Arkansas +7.5 at Oklahoma State
Hard and fast rule for me here, anytime you can back a team that won 70-0 last week getting 7.5 points, you take it. Especially if that team is an SEC team against a Big 12 opponent. Arkansas gave up 7 yards rushing on 23 carries last week (REAL NUMBER)...and yes, it was Arkansas Pine-Bluff but the point stands. Arkansas also has a really talented dual threat QB (Taylen Green) that I’ll be backing all season long. 229 yards passing, 88 yards rushing and 4 total TDs last week (2 each)....if he doesn’t turn it over, they cover 7.5 against the run-heavy OKST attack.
Tulane +10 (-115) vs. Kansas State
Tulane ML (+300)
Tulane nearly meets my Arkansas rule…they won 52-0 last week against SELA (I’m too lazy to look up what awful football team that stands for but hey 52 is 52). The important thing here for me is that Tulane started a freshman QB named Darian Mensah over the two guys NCAA Football 25 told me are better than the freshman. But if this freshman is legit good (Spoiler: I think he is!) Tulane will remain the mid-major powerhouse they have been in CFB for years! Their RB Malaki Hughes is a superstar as well. Remember, Tulane beat this Kansas State program 17-10 in 2022…there’s nothing particularly noteworthy for me on this Kansas State group.
Georgia Tech -3 vs. Syracuse (-110)
Haynes King hive stand up! After Georgia Tech’s performance in Week 0 I dubbed them one of “my teams” (it’s them, Drew Allar and USC right now, more incoming). They ran for 225 yards against Georgia State in a 35-12 win after looking very impressive on the ground against Florida State as well. Enter a Syracuse team that *checks notes* gave up 255 YARDS RUSHING (6.5 YPC) TO OHIO!!! Ohio’s running back Anthony Tyus ran for 203 yards on 16 carries and 2 touchdowns. Anthony Tyus is from Portage, Michigan. That’s where I live. Anthony Tyus had 217 yard all of last season at Northwestern. He is not that. GATECH is gonna run all over this Cuse team, and Kyle McCord may end up looking a lot like DJU did in Week 0 (missing throws under pressure, turnover-prone, etc).
Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa State (-112)
Iowa State HC Matt Campbell is 1-6 against Iowa. Kirk Ferentz is BACK after his self-imposed suspension. Ferentz owns Campbell. Iowa State managed a measley 21 points against North Dakota in Week 1. Iowa’s defense should shut them down and the offense found some answers after a 34-point second half in their 40-0 win last week. Both Iowa State (#1) and Iowa (#10) rank in the top 10 in the country in terms of Returning Production rankings. For anyone that has been around long, Iowa has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Hawkeyes will be at home, with a group full of guys that have only owned this rivalry, with the emotional return of their head coach. Yeahhhhh go Hawkeyes.
Maryland -8 vs. Michigan State (-110)
In the last two years, Maryland has won this matchup both times (by an average of 18 points per game, both wins by 14+). Maryland’s QB Billy Edwards may have some shit to him (the Terps are 4-0 with wins over Northwestern, NC State, Auburn and UConn in his four career starts). Maryland absolutely dogwalked UConn 50-7 last week, while MSU struggled at home with FAU, winning by six in large part thanks to Aidan Chiles aka Hollywood Joe Milton’s erratic arm. I love Chiles’ potential longterm, I don’t think he’s ready to go on the road and compete against a good defense. Terps by two scores, followed by a generational “I just have to look myself in the mirror, I’m special I promise” postgame presser from Chiles after an 160-yard, 3 INT performance.
Utah -14 vs. Baylor (-110)
Line feels oddly disrespectful….which points me to Utah. Utah shut out Southern Utah in Week 1 and Cam Rising threw for 5 TDs…he’s old and also good but also old but mostly good. In years past, I would talk myself into the points here but this screams “Utah up 21-0 at the end of the 1st” sucker bet to me. Key stats: Utah is very good as a huge favorite and Baylor is very bad as a huge underdog. Utah is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games as a double-digit favorite. Baylor is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a double-digit underdog. Yep, Utes. New year, new me.
Nevada ML (+102) vs. Georgia Southern
HOME DOGS AREN’T DOGS THEY’RE WHAT NOW??? THEY’RE WOLVESSS!!! WOLFPACK STAND UP. Through two games, Nevada has been one of the more profitable teams to back, taking a good SMU team to the wire then beating Sun Belt opponent Troy in Week 1. Now they’re back home against a Georgia Southern team that my eyes tell me may have the worst defense in all of CFB this season. They gave up touchdowns to Boise State on 7 of their final 8 drives down the stretch of the last game. They let Boise’s RB tally 267 yards on 20 carries with 6 touchdowns. Plus money for a really competitive offense at home against that defense is a gift.
NC State +8 vs. Tennessee (-112)
Nico looks incredible for Tennessee but I love this as a buy low spot for NC State after they struggled to a 38-21 win over WCU in Week 1. Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina transfer) can air it out and is old as hell, I think his experience can factor in here against a young QB on the other side. Key football number at +8…I’ll back the old QB to keep it close.
Colorado +7.5 at Nebraska (-115)
Alright I keep going back and forth with this game but here’s where I’m at with it…we can’t overreact to Colorado WINNING a game against a legitimately solid NDST team. Reminder that last season Colorado stomped this Nebraska program 36-14 in the same point in the schedule. Yes Dylan Raiola is in and he makes a huge difference. But the Nebraska defense isn’t THAT much improved, and when Shadeur, Travis and Co. saw elite QBs last season, they mostly scored with them and kept it close. They covered 7.5 against: Caleb Williams, Noah Fifita, DJ Uiagaleilei and Ashton Daniels last year. Raiola is good…but he’s not the first two guys on that list yet. Colorado will score enough to keep this interesting.
Ohio State -38 vs. Western Michigan (-112)
One of my favorite bets of the week here. Ryan Day has covered 38 points 6 of 9 times in non-conference regular season games against small conference opponents. WMU is over-valued here for “keeping it close” against a Wisconsin team that might just be bad…It took Will Howard a bit to figure out his first Buckeyes start…but he did, and Ohio State outscored them 35-3 in the 2nd Half. Expect a full game performance that looks a lot more like that 2nd Half against a WMU team that may convince themselves they have a chance in a game they are going to get destroyed in.
Boise State +19 at Oregon (-110)
Simple test theory here - I’m out on big transfer portal teams that are primarily composed of guys that are just cashing one last paycheck (we saw this completely decimate Arkansas basketball this year, Florida State football is headed for the same fate). Oregon barely survived Idaho (yes, Idaho!) in Week 1 and then their own players hit the podium and said QB Dillon Gabriel didn’t look confident. Capital Y YIKES - meanwhile Boise State’s RB had the best individual offensive performance in all of Week 1 (6 TDs and nearly 300 yards). Like I said, this is a test of my anti-tranfer team theory….but I like my gut sense here. 19 is too many points
Week 2 Favorites Parlay: (+264)
Favorites Parlay: Texas ML, Utah ML, Maryland ML, Iowa ML (+264)
We hit this last week, and I’m back after it again - this week with four of my most confident “just win” spots from the card above
Week 2 Underdogs Parlay: (+11590)
Underdog Parlay: Tulane ML, Illinois ML, NC State ML, Colorado ML (+11590)
Four underdogs I’m after - I’ll be round robinning these as well. Only one I didn’t write about is Illinois ML - and I’ll be honest it just feels like good value for a juiced up home crowd against Kansas in a revenge spot from last year. 5.5 points for the spread is a weird number stay away, but +185 ML is worth thinking about, and a good throw in this longshot type sprinkle play.
Now over to Cart, who thought I meant “potluck” when I told him this week’s theme was “make your own luck”.
CART’S PICKS:
One thing I will never do is come on this newsletter and complain about having a winning record (2-1 for those keeping track at home), but I did take a step back and ask myself “Am I settling?”. I am not here to say one should or should not settle but as my father hood month is upon me I think it’s time to not settle or be complacent and to use a cliche of the greatest basketball player of all time “Strive For Greatness”. Three picks won’t do it this week…it's time to see where I’m really at. Let’s get to the picks.
*WEEKLY DISCLAIMER* There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known)
Duke +120 vs Northwestern
Both of these teams are coming off week one “limpy” victories is the best way I can describe it. Northwestern was able to squeak out a 13-6 win at home while Duke was able to pull away in the second half to beat Elon 26-3. There is one reason why I am leaning Duke in this football game and that is Malik Murphy, the Texas transfer is dynamic and though Northwestern's defense is solid I think he will be able to make enough plays to win this game outright. Murphy and the Duke offense was a bit stagnant in game one adjusting to their new offensive system but they did look better in the second half of their first game and I look for them to be even more comfortable in game 2.
Texas -9.5 +105 vs Michigan
Does 80% of the money being on Texas in this game scare me? Nah not really. This game opened at -6.5 and is currently listed at -7.5 and because I don’t love that number and value I am calling my shot with an alternate line in this game. I just don’t see how Michigan will be able to score offensively especially if they are getting nothing from Donavon Edwards and combine that with very underwhelming performances offensively from everyone not named Colston Loveland and Kalel Mullings. Defensively Michigan looked good in their first game but because they were on the field a bunch Fresno State was able to move the ball through the air a bit but luckily Michgian was able to create turnovers. I think Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns have experience and weapons offensively to make it really tough on Michigan and score points. Meanwhile I don’t see how Michigan will be able to be productive enough offensively to keep this game within single digits. Give me the Longhorns -9.5 at plus money.
Iowa -2.5 vs Iowa State (-110)
The Iowa Hawkeyes might know how to offense now? Now I know the competition wasn’t the greatest but them scoring 40 points moved me…sorry sue me. This is always known as a low scoring affair and it seems to be a betting commandment at this point that the under is bet in these games. But for everything that is good with Matt Campbell at Iowa State this man is 1-6!!!!! Versus Iowa and may that change eventually? I don’t know but it isn't going to change on the road at Kinnick against a good Iowa defense and an offense that actually tries to offense now. Give me Iowa to cover.
NC State +8 vs Tennessee (-110)
Now I know that NC State struggled in their opener as they were pushed to the brink by Western Carolina while Tennessee steam rolled a team in Chattanooga that was so bad it felt illegal, but hear me out on this one. I think there are cases where there can be just a bit too much put into week one performances either for the good or for the bad. Getting 8 points for a home team with talent is too good to pass up. It might be a grimey one but I think the home team can cover in this one.
Colorado +7.5 vs Nebraska
I understand that Dylan Raiola is going to be special and he was good in week one but we need to pump some serious breaks here. Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter (and the Colorado offense as a whole) is special and this is still Nebraska. Is this a line that is begging me to take it so the Huskers can win by 21? Shit maybe but I am not going to let this slide…Colorado has enough playmakers to keep a game against Nebraska close. Travis Hunter pick six on Raiola will feed families if you were wondering.
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