I don’t know if I believe in ghosts.
I don’t know if I should say that out loud, either.
Like imagine it - if ghosts are real, and hypothetically a ghost subscribes to this newsletter, isn’t his first move when he sees that first sentence to screenshot it, send it to his ghost groupchat, and start plotting ways to haunt me as a group?
That’s what I would do if I was a ghost. I might be a really good ghost now that I think about it.
Let me make myself unequivocally clear - I DO NOT WANT TO BE HAUNTED BY GHOSTS.
I just don’t know if I believe in them.
I do believe in GHOSTWRITERS.
Insert Drake joke here.
True story though, when I was in high school, Mark Dantonio’s daughter asked me to write and record a rap song for the Michigan State football team. This was Kirk Cousins’ final year at MSU.
I was pumped. My rap dreams had just begun. So I did.
The song was called “Heart of a Spartan” (Jesus H. Christ, Gregory) but despite the cheesy title dammit I stand by the bars as some of the best I ever wrote.
I spent two weeks on it, recorded it in my parents’ basement, hit export in GarageBand and sent it to a Dantonio family Gmail account.
A week later, the daughter told me that she had showed her Dad (Mark F’ing Dantonio) and that “he played it for the team after practice”.
At first I was pumped. And then I was like waaaaaaiiitttttaminnnuuttteeeeeee…..
Because in my stupid high schooler head, if he had actually liked it, not only would he have played it for the team, someone would have recorded a video of it, or I would have gotten some message from Mark himself, or someone behind the scenes at MSU football would have reached out and been like “Dang High School Gwizzy, That Was So Good We’re Gonna Play It During Pre-Game Warm-Ups!”
None of that happened, so I convinced myself that Mark must not have liked it, and therefore he probably never played it for anyone on the team.
Fast forward a few weeks - Mark’s daughter randomly invites me to come with her to his weekly radio show at Pizza House. I’m excited.
We show up, eat some pizza, Mark does his radio thing, it’s extremely fun for an hour or so.
Then suddenly, KIRK COUSINS sits down at our table right across from me.
Mind you, this is PRIME COLLEGE KIRK COUSINS, jaw line chiseled like a Greek statue, the man’s entire aura screamed SUPERHERO.
I’m freaking out. He starts making small talk with my friend. Then suddenly, she goes “Oh, Kirk! This is my friend Greg, he’s the one that made that song we played after practice!!”
waaaaaaiiitttttaminnnuuttteeeeeee…..
Kirk Cousins proceeds to shake my hand extremely firmly, and say the words AND I QUOTE: “No wayyyy! For real? Heart of a Spartan? Man that song is sick. I’ve been listening to that for a week”.
I was giddy.
A week later, I got an email from a MOEAGERPRODUCTIONS gmail account.
waaaaaaiiitttttaminnnuuttteeeeeee…..
“Hello Greg, this is Andy from Moe Ager’s music team.
Kirk Cousins sent us the song you wrote - very good. Moe has an offer for you.
We are looking for a ghostwriter for his upcoming album. Any interest?”
I swear to God every word I have written above is true.
I declined the very enticing offer….because in my 17-year old brain, there was some INTEGRITY in not giving away my original written verses.
But I could have been a GHOSTWRITER, which is why I believe in ghostwriters.
As I have gotten older, I have learned that when you grow up, you are supposed to have everything figured out. I’m a 31-year old dad now. I’m supposed to have all the answers.
If my daughter wakes me up in the middle of the night to tell me she saw a ghost in her room, I’m supposed to immediately calm her down and tell her that ghosts aren’t real.
And I will.
But what she doesn’t know is I that I actually have no clue if that’s true or not! Ghosts might be extremely real!
Who am I to say that the spirits of the deceased don’t walk amongst us?
As I’ve started Dadding more, I’ve realized that parents have to keep a lot of secrets from their children.
Not only do we have to pretend that we know FOR SURE that ghosts aren’t real, but we also have to exude a total sense of security at all times in all ways.
We want the people we love to feel safe, so we pretend we know everything and we pretend everything is…fine.
That’s why I pretend like I’m 100% over my fear of flying ever since I had a panic attack on a flight a decade ago, when in reality I still get sweaty in TSA Pre-check.
That’s why I pretend like I’m 100% confident that this Sleepers thing is financially sustainable for the rest of my life, and not just a passion project that is working FOR NOW but may not work forever.
That’s why I pretend like I’m 100% sure that this awful start to my bets in this newsletter is going to end soon, and the bets will start hitting again.
The reality is….I don’t know any of things.
I don’t know if I’m just going to lose every bet I place this week or not. And I don’t know if ghosts don’t exist either.
But I also didn’t know that Kirk Cousins listened to my song, and that turned out better than I expected.
Head down, spirits up. Stay low and build.
Until the ghosts go away.
***EDITOR’S NOTE - WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO SEE IS NOT SAFE FOR EARTHLY EYES***
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: OMG YIKES 3-13 (-10.31 Units)
CART RECORD: 1-3 (-2.09 Units)
GREG WINS:
Alabama -15.5 vs. Wisconsin (-110)
Boston College +17 at Missouri (-112)
Maryland -2.5 at Virginia (-112)
GREG LOSSES:
Arizona +7.5 (-112) at Kansas State (Friday)
Arizona ML (+235)
Michigan vs. Arkansas State UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Tulane +14.5 at Oklahoma (-135)
Purdue +10.5 vs. Notre Dame (-112)
Florida +4.5 vs. Texas A&M (-112)
Florida ML (+154)
Colorado State +7.5 vs. Colorado (-125)
Colorado State ML (+230)
Colorado State to win by 19-24 (+3000)
UCLA +3 vs. Indiana (+3000)
UCLA ML (+136)
Week 3 Underdogs Parlay: (+28170)
CART WINS:
Notre Dame -10 vs Purdue (-110)
CART LOSSES:
Arizona +7.5 vs Kansas State
UCLA +3 vs Indiana
UCLA +136 vs Indiana
SEASON RECORDS:
GREG RECORD: 18-31 (-11.99 Units)
CART RECORD: 5-7 (-2.04 Units)
EDITOR’S NOTE #2: OKAY THE BAD PART IS OVER, LET’S DANCE
GREG’S PICKS:
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Editor’s Note #3: I’m keeping the write-ups short and simple this week in an effort to shift the mojo here
USC -5.5 at Michigan (-112)
Miller Moss is a very good quarterback. Alex Orji is the right QB for Michigan, but his arm looked awful in the Spring Game. I am a strong believer that Michigan will destroy bad/average teams this year but if you can score on Michigan, you will beat Michigan by 7+. Anything under 7 is a go here for a legit Trojans offense and a new-look Trojans defense that will actually make things difficult on the Michigan ground game
Arkansas +3.5 at Auburn (-118)
Arkansas ML (+124)
Going off eye test here, Arkansas beat a team 70-0 in Week 1, then lost on the road against Oklahoma State in a game they absolutely controlled for the bulk of and it came down to Overtime. Taylen Green is a legitimate star dual threat at QB. Meanwhile, Auburn finally benched Payton Thorne (who is asking for NIL donations on Instagram and complaining that Auburn fans are venmo requesting their money back from him) for a freshman. Cart and I have Ten Betting Commandments, and Commandment #7 is: Thou Shalt Bet Against Payton Thorne’s Team Every Time Payton Thorne Gets Benched And Immediately Begs For Donations On Instagram
Oklahoma State +3 vs. Utah (-112)
Oklahoma State ML (+110)
Utah’s star QB Cam Rising missed last week with a laceration on his hand. Repeat that out loud for me please - a lacerated hand. And he’s just gonna return totally fine from that boo boo and win a game as a three-point favorite on the road against a ranked team? I don’t really buy it. On defense, I have questions too. Utah gave up 21 points to Utah State a week after the USC defense held Utah State scoreless. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Home team HOME DOGS ARENT DOGS THEYRE WOLVES alert.
Cal +2 at Florida State (-110)
Simple one here - I have missed the window to fade Florida State each of the last two weeks, and I have instantly regretted it when I flip their game on and they’re down 10 immediately and DJ Oooolookatmeimoooooiiaaguhlawful is throwing for 3 yards per completion midway through the 2nd Quarter. I won’t miss that chance again. Cal’s 3-0 and their defense hasn’t given up more than 14 points in a game. That should be enough here.
Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma (-110)
Oklahoma beat my Tulane Green Wave handily last week, but they left the door open late. Big spot here with all eyes on them, the only problem? Tennessee has outscored their opponents (NC State, Chattanooga, Kent State) 191-10 on the season. Real numbers. Tennessee is for real - this spot reminds me a ton of TEXAS AT MICHIGAN where we knew the home team had issues (Oklahoma nearly lost to Houston. Houston BAD) and we knew the road team was incredible. Don’t sweat it.
Minnesota +3 vs. Iowa (-110)
Minnesota ML (+114)
Couple reasons I love this spot. #1 - Iowa is bad at football this year. They blew a game to Iowa State they never should have, then immediately followed that up by losing the first half to TROY. #2 - Iowa’s new OC is Tim Lester (former Western Michigan Head Coach). Tim Lester was the coach who was hired to REPLACE PJ Fleck (current Minnesota Head Coach, better football coach than Tim Lester). This is a PROVE IT game for PJ. #3 - Minnesota has looked awesome since their fluke loss to UNC where their All-American kicker missed two chip shots to win. In fact they haven’t allowed a point, outscoring Nevada and Rhode Island 75-0 in the last two weeks. That defense is going to shut down the awful Iowa offense at home in a night game. HOME DOGS ARENT DOGS THEY ARE WOLVES. STOP SEEING GHOSTS.
Michigan State +7 at Boston College (-112)
Michigan State ML (+190)
RED BANDANA GAME here, where Boston College honors a volunteer firefighter BC lacrosse player who gave his life saving people on 9/11. Emotional night. Important historical note here - Boston College is 4-5 on Red Bandana Night. This entire game comes down to MSU’s secondary to me, which has been VERY good on the year. They allow 164 passing yards a game, and if they can limit the big plays, a touchdown is far too much. Aidan Chiles statement game, he outplays Castellanos, and MSU starts to get some shine nationally.
Indiana -27.5 vs. Charlotte (-112)
Simple one here. Charlotte stinks - they are 1-2 with the one win being a comeback 27-26 win over GARDNER-WEBB. Charlotte opened the season against James Madison, losing at home to the Dukes by a score of 30-7. You may remember James Madison as CURT CIGNETTI’S OLD SCHOOL THAT HE JUST LEFT AND TOOK ALL THE GOOD PLAYERS FROM. So the old school without the coach wins by 23? And the team that just went to UCLA and stomped the Bruins by 29 isn’t going to win this one by 40? Yeah I can’t avoid it any longer - I’m fully aboard the Curt Cignetti train. This team is good, they have a star at QB, they have a psychopath Head Coach, and this week they have a spread that is 14 points too low.
UNDERDOG PARLAY (+2819)
Michigan State ML
Minnesota ML
Oklahoma State ML
Arkansas ML
Wrote about all of these above. We’re downsizing the parlay this week to something much more reasonable. I feel really good that at least 2-3 of these will hit.
JUST BE BETTER THAN THEM YOU’RE CLEARLY BETTER THAN THEM PARLAY (+102)
USC ML
Tennessee ML
Taking both spreads, but plus money just to win? You don’t have to tell me twice.
Now over to an extremely, extremely, sleep-deprived Carter Elliott who probably thinks I am a ghost.
CART’S PICKS:
***EDITOR’S NOTE*** Carter is taking a week off from all content things this week to focus on his new task of being a father - in his honor, and in the honor of Leon Collier Elliott, Uncle Greg is going to ghostwrite Carter’s portion pretending he is Carter. This is what you wanted, Moe Ager.
God it’s special when Gregory picks up the pen. I love reading anything he writes but I especially love it when a couple of Spartan Dawgs woof woof are involved. Shoutout Kirko Bangz and Moe Money the OG. Now that I’m a Dad I dont plan on losing any bets anymore. You will notice I hit Notre Dame last week in our first head to head vs. Gregory (youre welcome) but the rest of the bets were lost due to sleep deprivation and that’s on me. But the good news is the Cartel has Dad Strength now so excuse me while I get on my Scottie Scheffler and just don’t lose ever again. Leon’s sleeping for the next 20 minutes so you get three picks this week.
*WEEKLY DISCLAIMER* There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known)
USC -9.5 (+135) at Michigan
Calling my shot here because lets face it Alex Orji stinks. I dont care if he is big and athletic his arm might be worse than Leon’s and more importantly his awareness might be worse than the nurse that told Meg and I that one of us needs to stay up at all times throughout the night the first night after we had Leon (bullshit Amy, bullshit). Alternate line cuz I aint no bitch.
Mississippi State +6 vs Florida (-110)
At a certain point dont we all just have to accept that Florida is very bad at football? Everyone wants Billy Napier fired and yes Missisippi State is bad too but theyre at home and this just feels like some crazy value to me. There’s nothing I love more than betting against teams that hate eachother and coaches that are ready to quit and that is this Florida team through and through.
Kansas ML +114 vs West Virginia
Call me crazy but I’m not giving up on My Jayhawks just yet. Yes Jalon Daniels has been awful but deep down inside there is still a good quarterback in there somewhere. And this is West Virginia we are talking about. The same West Virginia that just lost to Pat Narduzzi and got blown out by Penn State before Penn State nearly lost to Bowling Green. Plus money for the team with the better QB is a must-bet. Please show up Jalon.
Bonus Leon Pick of the Week: Michigan State ML +190
Yeah yeah yeah I get it, “Carter don’t do this, Carter do that”. Ya damn skippy my young king came into this world rocking that green and white and ya damn skippy I aint raising him to run from the moment either. He looked me dead in the eyes in between a diaper and an afternoon snack and said MONEYLINE DAD, MONEYLINE. His college tuition depends on this.
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