Cart and I have always had this thing with “moments”.
I believe in them, he doesn’t.
We talk about it all the time. It’s where our motto, “Stay low and build” comes from.
I always want to celebrate things and take in the idea of small successes as these big, meaningful moments that are worth remembering.
Example: The night I was introduced to Carter in college, I drunkenly told him “my goal in life is for you to be in my wedding one day”
To me that was arguably our first moment.
To Cart? He probably doesn’t even remember it. Partially because I saw how much he drank that night, but also partially because he claims he just straight up doesn’t care about “moments”.
His whole philosophy is: life is life. Things happen. Good and bad. Move on.
Stay low and build.
And I’m with that for the most part, but I’m also an emotional sap that likes to make everything bigger than it needs to be. It’s a character flaw.
Another thing I’m big on: momentum.
Have you watched the Detroit Tigers lately?
I’m convinced that sometimes in this universe, things happen that just…snowball. Sequences of events trigger additional events and before you know it, something special is happening right in front of you.
The best example of momentum that I can recall in my personal life came in high school. I played tennis for three years.
The first year on varsity I had zero clue what I was doing. Only played because I wanted to stay in shape for basketball and my aunt and uncle had taught me how to play when I was a kid.
Turns out I was decent at it. I made the last cut for the varsity team, battled against two kids ahead of me on the “depth chart” and won the last spot in the active squad playing 4 Doubles.
The way tennis works is there are four singles matches and four doubles matches and the caliber of the players gets progressively worse as you go. So as the last 4 Doubles player on the team, I was…essentially the worst player on the team.
But our team was good! Ranked #2 in the state for most of the season. Lots of seniors (I was a sophomore)…I was in way over my head.
Then after a pretty up and down start to the year, all of a sudden midway through that sophomore season…my doubles partner and I got on a win streak. We just couldn’t miss.
We beat our rival, then won the district tournament, then won the regional tournament, always as the underdog. It was like an 8-match winning streak.
We qualified for the state tournament, and had to win six matches (pretty much March Madness bracket style) to win. We weren’t seeded entering the playoffs. Once again we were underdogs.
We won the first round. Then the second round. Then the Sweet 16. Then the Elite 8. Then we beat the #2 seed in the Semi.
The night before the title match, realizing we were on a 13 match winning streak, my partner and I were rooming together in a hotel room in Kalamazoo, MI (where I now live!!!)
A little past midnight, right as we were about to go to sleep, we looked at each other and I’ll never forget the exchange.
I said: “man…can you believe this shit?:”
He laughed for a second, then stopped and looked me dead in the eyes.
“Fuck yeah I can”.
We won the championship match in straight sets. Then we repeated the next year as 2 Doubles state champs. Then after he graduated, I repeated for a third year with a new partner as 1 Doubles state champs.
Through the years, Cart and I’s moments have gotten progressively bigger.
To name a few (not to brag):
We had Stu Douglass (hi Stu!) as our first player guest on a Zoom call interview years ago
We got a paycheck from Spotify to be featured on their home page
We went to Big Ten Media Day as credentialed media
We drove to 10 Big Ten arenas in a 3-month span
We did the Final Four live show with Robbie Hummel for Bleacher Report and then that night at the hotel bar Bleacher Report execs made fun of us for wearing identical Sleepers polo shirts because we “looked like cell phone salesmen”
We had babies (with our wives)
After each of these, I would literally say something along the lines of “Can you believe this shit?”
And he would reply something along the lines of: “meh, Stay Low and Build”
And honestly, each of those times, that is what I needed to hear.
But I do wonder how Carter feels about moments now. Having a kid changes you. You care about the big things. You stop caring about the stupid things. You start doing little things to make yourself better for the bigger things.
When I had Murph, I immediately started waking up at 6AM every day to run two miles. Then I started eating fruit. It was weird. I hate running and I tolerate fruit.
But suddenly I needed to do both. Because that’s what my Dad senses told me. I changed. Life was different now. I needed a routine. I needed some momentum.
I’ve texted on and off with Cart a bit this week…I miss the big fella I really do.
Sounds like he’s doing great and the family’s wonderful.
But it also feels like….he might have changed a bit. This is the first text I got from him post-Leon:
Yeah that’s a changed man.
It also feels like maybe…just maybe….the moments are starting to mean something to him:
That’s a man who can tell the difference between the important things and the dumb ones.
That’s Carter Elliot…with Dad Strength.
So for the second time in two weeks, we’re going to put ourselves in Cart’s shoes. Cuz I need some advice right about now, and I already know what he would say:
“Cart, I’ve lost three straight weeks in the newsletter, can you believe this shit?”
“Meh…stay low and build, G”
“Cart, I’ve done the research…this week is the bounce back of a lifetime, can you believe this shit?”
…
“Fuck yeah I can”
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: 5-8-1 (-3.26 Units)
CART RECORD: N/A, UNAVAILABLE
FAKE CART RECORD: 0-3 (-3 Units)
FAKE LEON RECORD: 0-1 (-1 Unit)
GREG WINS:
Arkansas +3.5 at Auburn (-118)
Arkansas ML (+124)
Tennessee -7 at Oklahoma (-110)
Michigan State +7 at Boston College (-112)
Indiana -27.5 vs. Charlotte (-112)
GREG LOSSES:
USC -5.5 at Michigan (-112)
Oklahoma State ML (+110)
Cal +2 at Florida State (-110)
Minnesota +3 vs. Iowa (-110)
Minnesota ML (+114)
Michigan State ML (+190)
UNDERDOG PARLAY (+2819)
JUST BE BETTER THAN THEM YOU’RE CLEARLY BETTER THAN THEM PARLAY (+102)
GREG PUSH:
Oklahoma State +3 vs. Utah (-112)
FAKE CART WINS:
none
FAKE CART LOSSES:
USC -9.5 (+135) at Michigan
Mississippi State +6 vs Florida (-110)
Kansas ML +114 vs West Virginia
FAKE LEON LOSSES:
Bonus Leon Pick of the Week: Michigan State ML +190
SEASON RECORDS:
GREG RECORD: 23-39-1 (-15.25 Units)
CART RECORD: 5-7 (-2.04 Units)
FAKE CART RECORD: 0-3 (-3 Units)
FAKE LEON RECORD: 0-1 (-1 Unit)
GREG’S PICKS:
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Editor’s Note: idk what to tell yall, coldest streak betting-wise I’ve had in years. Feels like we’re due, but it also feels horrifying to keep putting some much time and effort into the write-ups of these just to fail. For superstitious purposes, I’m simplifying write-ups as much as I can this week. Here’s the card:
Rutgers -2.5 vs. Washington (-110)
I’m workshopping a Fade The Pac 12 Teams In The Big 10 theory…UCLA got smoked by Indiana, USC blew the game at Michigan. Feels like teams traveling across the country for the first time in conference play is a scary spot. This is a blackout game at night for Rutgers, they rank 10th in pass defense and Washington is pretty one-dimensional to me, and lost the only game they have played against an opponent with a pulse. Rutgers impressed last week and should have the upper hand again with a KEY FOOTBALL NUMBER.
Michigan -9 vs. Minnesota (-110)
Minnesota just lost by 17 POINTS AT HOME TO ACTUAL IOWA. They’re not going on the road to Ann Arbor and keeping it closer than that against NEW IOWA. Nobody wants to admit Michigan’s defense/run game are legit, but they are, and Minnesota will have no answers even if Alex Orji plays this game with both hands forcibly tied behind his back.
BYU +3 at Baylor (-105)
BYU ML (+145 ML)
I want the key football number of +3 and the ML here. I was wildly impressed by BYU stomping Avery Johnson’s Kansas State team by 29 last week. I was wildly unimpressed by Baylor blowing that game to Colorado on a Shedeur Hail Mary. This feels like too much extra value numbers-wise to me. Sprinkling ML too in case BYU is just legit and Baylor is actually as bad as they looked.
Arkansas +4 at Texas A&M (-110)
Arkansas ML (+160)
This is a pure “you have earned my respect” play. Love Arkansas’ QB Taylen Green. He marched into Auburn and controlled that game from start to finish. He’s better than A&M’s QB situation (freshman Marcel Reed has fully taken over now). A&M nearly lost to Bowling Green last week before winning by six. Give me the HOGS!
Oklahoma -2.5 at Auburn (-105)
Last week I referenced Betting Commandment #7, Thou Shalt Bet Against Payton Thorne’s Team Every Time They Play A Game Right After Payton Thorne Publicly Begs For Donations A Week After Getting Benched. This week, we’re fading Auburn again due to Commandment #8: Thou Shalt Bet Against Payton Thorne’s Team Every Time They Play A Game Right After Payton Thorne Slanders The QB Who Took His Job By Telling Him To “Stay Off Social Media” Right After They Lose A Game Tight After He Publicly begged For Donations A Week After Getting Benched”. That guy sucks. His team sucks too. Oklahoma in a big bounce back spot.
Duke -2.5 vs. UNC (-110)
I mean they’re daring us here but I’m taking the bait. UNC was OPPENHEIMER DISASTER bad against James Madison letting The Fighting Curt Cignetti Used To Work Here!’s hang 50+ IN A HALF after them. Duke isn’t good but I love Maalik Murphy and they’re better than their rival. Big time “quit on the season” potential for the Heels right after Mack Brown threatened to step down then immediately was like “I’m kidding”. Only thing that scares me here is how obvious it is, but sometimes you have to take the bait.
Michigan State +24 vs. OSU (-110)
I’ll be in the stadium for this one. Bottom line for me is this - Spartan Stadium should have some juice at night. OSU is great but Will Howard may make some Aidan Chiles-like mistakes. 24 is just way too many points for a HOME DAWG in Jontahon Smith’s first big opportunity game that has played every opponent with a pulse close for 60 minutes.
Stanford +21.5 at Clemson (-110)
Great number here makes this a must-bet. Stanford has a great QB and a star WR that might both star at Clemson this year. Clemson was so good last week this feels like a let down spot. Getting three full touchdowns is a perfect number.
Alabama +110 ML vs. Georgia
MMmmmmmmmMMMmmm okay let’s do this. So I have been adamant this year that Texas and Alabama are the two teams I am very very in on. I love teams that lost in the playoff, bring back great QBs and get better. That’s the Michigan 2024 formula (minus the complex spygate plan). Bama good. Milroe good. Kalen Deboer good! I have way more questions with Georgia…them letting Kentucky hang around all night seemed a lot more like a sign of who they truly are than a major slip up. Bama plus money at home is an automatic play for me.
Illinois +18.5 at Penn State (-110)
Just a sign of respect play for me. Penn State should win, but Illinois has been great and Luke Altmyer has been flawless. Give me juuuuuust enough Altmyer/Pat Bryant plays to keep this one close and comfortably cover in a 10-14 point loss max.
WEEK 5 UNDERDOG PARLAY (+2452)
BYU ML
Arkansas ML
TCU ML
Alabama ML
BIG TEN BIG HOME FAVORITES PARLAY (+108) ***5 UNIT PLAY***
Indiana ML
Michigan ML
USC ML
Have to put my money where my mouth is here…IT’S TIME TO WIN THE WEEK and this one’s hitting. Michigan will steamroll Minnesota, USC in a bounce back spot at home against a bad Wisconsin team with the travel trip from Hell, and Indiana to take care of business at home against Maryland. Combine them together just to win, plus money. Hit it.
That’s it for the week, Cart’s still off Dadding. I promised him I wouldn’t ghost-write his portion again, at first because he said he got three texts from people asking if it was him, and then because I lost every fake pick I wrote and I can’t do that to him again.
Let’s kill the momentum. Let’s have a moment. “Fuck yeah”.
WEEK 5 PREVIEWS YOU SHOULD WATCH:
not out yet, keep an eye out on Wednesday on the channel though!
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