New Year's Resolutions
but betting
It dawned on me this morning that Week 2 feels a bit like New Year’s Eve. You wait all year long for Christmas (Week 1) and it’s special and emotional and magical and festive and you get a bunch of gifts (odds boosts and free bets from the sports books) and you give out some gifts too (the parlays you send to your friends you bet with) and some of the gifts suck (the parlays that lose the first leg of the noon kickoffs) and some of the gifts are awesome (the parlays that have life going into Hawaii).
But when all of that is over, and you wake up on December 26th (Sunday after Week 1), you shift your attention forward to what’s next. You figure out your New Year’s Eve plans, you make a Notes app list of potential resolutions, and while the holiday spirit still resonates, you turn your attention toward a new phase.
That’s Week 2. All the excitement is still here, but this week is about getting down to business. We’re not just making bets, we’re winning bets.
With that said, here are three resolutions for the remainder of this season that I promise to abide by each week:
Fade Scott Frost - I’m talking spread bets and money line sprinkle against Nebraska EVERY SINGLE WEEK.
Support our troops…….’ opponents. Fade Army was my lock of the week last week and I feel the same this week.
Stay the course. This is mental. We can’t be mad we lost West Virginia ML because a wide open WR let a ball hit him in the chest in FG range and get run back for a Pick Six. We can’t be mad when LSU ML loses because they can’t convert an extra point. For every undeserved loss comes a North Carolina ML win where they give up 6 TDs in the 4th and still get it done. BELIEVE LIKE YOU’RE AN EXTRA IN AN EPISODE OF TED LASSO! We’ll be fine.
Onto the picks. DraftKings Liz Cambage ‘s picks at the bottom. WATCH OUR WEEKLY FOOTBALL BETTING SHOW, “THE BIGGEST LOSER” HERE! And follow @MultiplicityMG to see all of our team’s football betting content this season.
THE DON’T HOLD BACK PLAY OF THE WEEK: UTSA ML (-140) AT ARMY
UTSA is coming off a 3OT heartbreaker to Houston (a legit top 25 team) and they controlled the majority of the game before a late comeback. Army opened up as a pickem last week at Coastal Carolina (they lost by 10) and were outgunned both through the air and on the ground. UTSA’s front seven is significantly better than Coastal’s, and their QB Frank Harris WEARS NUMBER ZERO and is a dynamic dual threat. UTSA will score 40+ in this game. Bring the hammers out. But thank you for your service @Army.
OTHER QUICK HITTERS I LIKE AS SINGLE PLAYS WITH ONE SENTENCE WHY:
Wake Forest -13 at Vanderbilt (-110) - Sam Hartman BACK!
Alabama -20.5 at Texas (-110) - For the same reason why we all quickly realized Oregon +17 was a dumb bet against Georgia, this should be a comfortable win by halftime.
Iowa -3.5 (-110) vs. Iowa State - Rivalry game, Matt Campbell has struggled in this series, the bounce back spot of all bounce back spots. Kinnick voodoo.
Wagner +51 at Rutgers (-110) - If my nephew’s U9 soccer team got 51 points against Rutgers I’d take the points
Georgia Southern +23.5 at Nebraska (-110) - Georgia Southern beat Morgan State in Week 1 by a score of 59-7. Scott Frost is still coaching (they were on the ropes to North Dakota in the 4th)
Fresno State ML vs. Oregon State (-110) - Jake Haener is a monster. Oregon State bi-polar, much worse on the road.
A BET I’M CRAZY ENOUGH TO BET AND IF YOUR BANKROLL IS IN A GOOD SPOT, I ENCOURAGE YOU TO SPRINKLE WITH ME
Hawaii 2H ML (+3000). Michigan’s JJ McCarthy debut will give the Wolverines a 40-point lead at half. Then what happens? Insert Cade McNamara. Who Jim Harbaugh IS ACTIVELY SABOTAGING. I think he won’t throw a pass, this staff wants the fans to think it’s so obvious JJ wins the job. $5 on this one…it could happen (!!!)
WILL NOT MISS PLUS MONEY MONEYLINE CFB PARLAY (+104)
Wake Forest ML at Vanderbilt
Penn State ML vs. Ohio
Alabama ML at Texas
Notre Dame ML vs. Marshall
West Virginia ML vs. Kansas
Oregon ML vs. Eastern Washington
Washington ML vs. Portland State
Wisconsin ML vs. Washington State
Miami (FL) ML vs. Southern Miss
Easy. Stay the course.
LET’S TAKE A DEEP SHOT MONEYLINE CFB PARLAY (+16789)
UTSA ML at Army
Houston ML at Texas Tech
Pittsburgh ML vs. Tennessee
Florida ML vs. Kentucky
Baylor ML at BYU
Arizona ML vs. Mississppi State
I’m taking a deep shot to win $16k on a $100 bet here. All reasonable outcomes and I think this can get to the night slate without much pressure - need Pitt and Arizona to seal the deal.
I BELIEVE I CAN FLY UNDERDOG MONEYLINE CFB PARLAY (+43300)
Appalachian State ML at Texas A&M
Georgia Southern ML at Nebraska
Arizona ML vs. Mississippi State
We can dream. $50 to win $21,700
BONUS NFL WEEK ONE PARLAY (+8522)
Ravens ML at Jets
Bengals ML vs. Steelers
Panthers ML vs. Browns
Commanders ML vs. Jaguars
Chargers ML vs. Raiders
Titans ML vs. Giants
Cowboys ML vs. Bucs
Falcons ML vs. Saints
Week 1 NFL last year I turned a $100 free bet into $6k. Let’s run that shit back.
Good luck to everyone. Stay the course. Happy New Year. Here's Carter Elliott, who texted me this when I asked him if he had written his portion of this newsletter by the normal time:
As you can see from the photo above I have been through hell today folks. If you want #JusticeForCarter please tweet at Comerica Bank and let them know their new wire transfer process is harder than peeling your mom away from Zach Wilson. I appreciate Kyle Ahrens with Adobe being on top of things and making sure you have some great picks and parlays today. I am going to keep it simple and give you 2 picks for this weekend I feel great about. I also just decided to scroll up and see that Gregory already took one of my picks so it looks like you are only getting one pick this week.
USC-9 at Stanford
Christian McCafferry is not walking through that door folks. USC is too talented and I think they hear the rumblings that they didn’t dominate last week against Rice. I don’t think Stanford have the dogs to keep up with Caleb Williams and the boys. Them being on the road doesn’t scare me one bit. This will be a double digit win.
If you are upset that you did not get more picks from me you can follow me on twitter @CarterElliott__ and DM your location and I will pull up and we will have a conversation about it. Let’s win some damn bets this weekend.