The List of Ongoing Heartbreaks
This one's a little more serious than usual - there's your warning
For 12 years, I have kept a secret page in my Notes app.
I call it “The List of Ongoing Heartbreaks”
It’s not as depressing as it sounds. We’re not talking like:
got dumped a week before prom
dog died
got laid off a week before college basketball season started
As I type this out I realize that trying to summarize the most negative events in 30 years of real life reads like drawing the bad Monopoly “Chance” cards,
But no, the List of Ongoing Heartbreaks is less serious. Unless you’re me, and your entire life has revolved around sports since you were three years old.
Take a look for yourself:
By my count that is 21 heartbreaks in 12 calendar years for state of Michigan sports teams that I care about to some extent.
That’s an average of 1.75 heartbreaks a year.
I only have one heart people! It’s nonsense!
But seriously though, for as long as I can humanly remember, it has felt like even the most special versions of my favorite teams would just….come up short in the very biggest moment.
I’ll never forget the feeling I had watching the Tigers lose in the 2014 playoffs at Comerica Park with my Dad. You could sense that it was the end of an era. And it never felt like they even had a chance. And it hurt.
At a certain point, I just became accustomed to the pit in the stomach feel in those moments.
No matter how exciting the season had been, or how much hope I had coming in, when the finish lined approached, all I could think about was “what can go wrong?”
I’ll be honest though, the 2024 Detroit Tigers are putting this to the test.
I’ve written about them in bits and pieces the last couple of weeks, but goodness it’s getting crazier and crazier.
As I type this, the #GRITTYTIGS are tied 1-1 with the Cleveland Guardians, heading back home for Game 3 and 4 in Detroit.
Game 2 was gut punch after gut punch. Running into outs, a review on a line out that may or may not have bounced. Zero runs of support for our ace in a must-win game.
Historically, my stupid Notes app would tell you this is the type of game we are supposed to lose.
But something bigger is happening here.
I’m not necessarily a believer in destiny, or higher powers, quite honestly I’m still searching for answers. But I do believe that sometimes things happen that have some extra meaning to them.
Sometimes good things (or even bad things) happen, and then we as humans are able to make sense of them through the human emotional experience. Sports are one of the biggest ways to do that.
So sometimes when a team wins a baseball game they had no business winning, it means more to someone.
Right now, that someone would be my wife’s cousin. **warning - really sad story incoming**
My wife’s uncle unexpectedly passed away this past summer. He was a lifelong Tigers fan. He joked that he wanted his ashes spread at Comerica Park one day. He passed away 20 years too soon, at least. Our whole family was shocked.
Their family lives and breathes baseball. Her uncle passed down his love of the game to her cousin, who coaches high school ball in Oklahoma year-round.
When it came time to arrange a funeral, one of the first things we heard from their family was “We’ll have to get to Detroit for a game”. We passed around some dates, before ultimately settling on a Lions game, as that timing would be easier when the high school season ends in Oklahoma.
When her uncle passed, the Tigers were 23-27, 4th place in the AL Central. Since then, they are 66-50.
None of it makes sense.
This past weekend I officiated two of my friends’ wedding.
Now you may be thinking “Oh wow, I didn’t know you were a minister!”
I wasn’t. I got ordained online this past summer specifically for this wonderful occasion.
I have known the bride for 13 years, she was one of my wife’s best friends from high school. She’s one of my favorite people I have ever met.
The girl’s a rockstar - and to some extent, a perfectionist. Mostly because she’s great at a lot of things. She’s organized, and a planner, and smart. She was a D1 athlete, is now a coach, has a really successful job, and is just an all-around superstar person.
She also had her own List of Ongoing Heartbreaks, AKA - she just hadn’t dated the right guy through the years. Until now, as her newly-wed husband is very clearly the perfect match for her.
So you could say I felt the pressure to…deliver.
I spent the last six months researching, and preparing, and writing the sermon, and meeting with the bride and groom, and asking questions, and practicing and practicing and practicing some more.
My poor wife has probably heard this 15-minute speech 150 times in the last two months.
I just wanted it to be perfect. And if I’m being honest…I wasn’t sure if it would be. I was so incredibly honored to be asked to do the role, but I had never done this before. I’ve been known to be a mental midget at times in high-pressure moments. I didn’t want to let them down.
And no matter how much I prepared…no matter how comfortable I got memorizing my part….all I could think about was what could go wrong.
Fast forward to 4:48 PM Eastern time last Saturday.
It’s a BEAUTIFUL day. The ceremony starts in 12 minutes.
Surprisingly, the jitters are low. I’m ready. I feel great.
Until one of the wedding planners comes rushing up to me in a panic…
“Sooooo I just want you to be aware. The arch that you’ll be standing under just blew over. It’s really windy up there. If it falls, just make sure it doesn’t hit the bride”.
UhhhhhHHhhhhh WHAAAH?!?!?!??!
Now in my head what I wanted to say was: “Ma’am, respectfully, Ima be knee deep in a MAJESTIC sermon with my back turned to this damn arch. If it falls, I’m not even going to be able to see it. And more importantly YOURE THE WEDDING PLANNER. DONT LET IT FALL LETS DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT”
But instead what I said was “Okay, I got you”
Fast forward one more time for me.
It’s 5:12PM ET now. We are in the midst of a generational ceremony.
I. AM. COOKING.
And as far as I can tell - I got people hanging on every word. I imagine this is what Steph Curry felt like in the final minute of the Gold medal game.
Everything’s going in. Every line’s landing. Every theme’s striking the right emotional heart strings.
One of the biggest messages from my speech was defying expectations. Both the bride and groom had proven to their spouse that they were “not what they first expected” in a good way, and there was a big piece at the end where I tied it back to “MARRIAGE WILL NOT BE WHAT YOU FIRST EXPECT”, etc. etc. etc.
So I’m about to get to that emotional climax whe- BAMMMMMMMMMM
The damn arch falls. Forward. Onto our bride and groom. And also me, but hey who’s counting?
Quickly the maid of honor and two ushers come running up to pull it back. And it didn’t truly “hit” anyone. Butttttttt yeah.
I went into fight or flight mode. I quickly regrouped, made some joke about how you can’t have a beautiful day without wind or something…and then did my best to recover. And I think I did a good enough job.
But then about 15 seconds later, after everything had calmed down, I paused for just a brief moment. I had been so reactionary on my own end trying to verbally smooth things over that I hadn’t stopped to make eye contact with the bride.
There I was, head down, ad-libbing, pretending I was reading a line from my written script, thinking:
“Oh no…She’s going to be so upset”
I look up at her, fully expecting to see a mix of panic, anger, fear, annoyance, really any other negative word you can think of.
Instead?
She was smiling. Or more accurately, SHE WAS BEAMING. She was so into the moment, just so innately happy standing across from the perfect person for her, that the perfectionist side of her disappeared. She wasn’t thinking about “what could go wrong?” even though one of the dumbest possible things had just went wrong.
Wrong couldn’t happen that day.
That stupid arch be damned.
So what the hell is the point here?
#1 - Yes, I’ll officiate your wedding.
#2 is much more important. My friend taught me something this weekend without even realizing what she did for me.
Ongoing heartbreaks are only ongoing…..until they aren’t.
You could go on first date after first date after first date after first date feeling like you’re never going to find The One…until you do. And once you do, whatever happened in the past is just a memory. And whatever’s going wrong…might not mean as much anymore.
Life doesn’t always make sense. Life hits you in the gut sometimes. Until it doesn’t.
I’ve watched 21 heartbreaks in 12 years.
I watched Michigan football lose to Ohio State 15 TIMES IN 16 YEARS.
And then? I watched them win a national title in my Dad’s living room. The same Dad that gave me my love of sports because he gave me Michigan football games with him growing up.
The Detroit Tigers were supposed to lose Game 2 when it was 0-0 with two outs in the Top of the 9th.
But they didn’t.
And now I’ll be there at Game 3….with my Dad.
And then I’ll be there at Game 4….with my wife’s cousin. Who bought a plane ticket the moment he heard they made the ALDS, before even knowing that the series would make it to Game 4.
And for some reason I just can’t explain, I just know his Dad will be there with us too.
You can let your whole life pass you by focusing on what could go wrong. You can tally your tragedies, you can fixate on failures.
You can wait for the arch to fall down. And maybe it will.
Or…you can live a more hopeful life. You can come to the realization that just because things have gone wrong in the past, doesn’t mean they will in the future.
And maybe the arch will fall again. But maybe this time, you won’t even notice.
LAST WEEK RECAP:
GREG RECORD: 4-5 (-1.45 Units)
CART RECORD: N/A, UNAVAILABLE
GREG WINS:
Syracuse +7 at UNLV (-125)
Pitt -3 at North Carolina (-110)
Ohio State -20 vs. Iowa (-108)
Vanderbilt +22.5 vs. Alabama (-110)
GREG LOSSES:
Georgia -24 vs. Auburn (-112)
South Carolina +9.5 vs. Ole Miss (-110)
Stanford +8.5 vs. Virginia Tech (-110)
UNDERDOG PARLAY (+9879)
12-LEG BOMB LONGSHOT PARLAY (+1796)
SEASON RECORDS:
GREG RECORD: 34-50-2 (-11.03 Units)
CART RECORD: 5-7 (-2.04 Units)
GREG’S PICKS:
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Editor’s Note: What the hell am I doing with that intro, I mean fuck, this started as a betting newsletter and now I don’t even know what is happening anymore
Illinois -19.5 vs. Purdue (-110)
Purdue has starters opting out of the season to redshirt and transfer. They fired their Offensive Coordinator, then punted eight times in 11 drives, fumbling one of the others, and kicking two FGs. They gave up 52 points to Wisconsin (!!!!!), who had scored 58 in its last three weeks combined against South Dakota, Alabama and USC. Meanwhile, Illinois had a week off after the Penn State loss to regroup. They’re pissed. They’re good. And they’re getting a football team that has quit on its coach.
Rutgers -2.5 vs. Wisconsin (-112)
I love this spot given both teams’ results last week. Had Wisconsin not blitzed a completely lifeless Purdue team and Rutgers not lost at Nebraska, I think this is more like Rutgers -5. Key football numbers, and the Rutgers defense really impressed me against the Huskers. They held Raiola to 164 yards total passing and just 97 yards rushing on 2.3 yards per carry. If they play like that again at home, they beat the Badgers comfortably.
Oklahoma +14.5 vs. Texas (-110)
That’s two times in the last 18 meetings that Texas has won by 15 or more points. Texas is my national championship pick, I love them, but man the Sooners are no slouches either. I don’t think they should be 14.5-point dogs against anyone. Loved them against Tulane. They lost by just 10 to Tennessee. Sprinkle a little Rivalry Magic here and take the points.
Cincinnati +3.5 at UCF (-115)
Taking a shot with this one…UCF is trending in the wrong direction quickly. Their QB, KJ Jefferson, is a prime candidate for “most checked-out transfer in the country” and that usually leads to imploding seasons. UCF got destroyed by Colorado then was down 24-3 at halftime to a lifeless Florida team in another loss. Cincy has played better teams close, has a QB I trust, and should be a pickem at worst in this game given UCF’s spiraling trajectory.
Ohio State -3 at Oregon (-115)
Won’t overthink this one. I would have loved Oregon at this number pre-season, but the Buckeyes are the better team. Ryan Day is 38-0 against Big Ten coaches that aren’t Jim Harbaugh. Dan Lanning is not Jim Harbaugh. We just watched these two teams play Michigan State back to back. Both won comfortably, but Ohio State felt clinical. Oregon had to work more, and has a more mistake-prone player at QB. A critical Dillon Gabriel turnover here, and Ohio State pulls away late. Bonus points if we get a new cringy Ryan Day press conference moment where he drops a “well we heard what they said, nobody thought we could win this game”
LSU +3.5 vs. Ole Miss (-112)
The emotional swings of the Ole Miss season could continue here. They destroyed South Carolina last week after losing to a very mediocre Kentucky squad a week before. But Death Valley is a scary place, especially when Brian Kelly had an extra week to prepare. Kelly’s teams are 2-1 against Kiffin’s historically. LSU has won four straight. I buy a juiced up home win for LSU.
Vanderbilt +13.5 at Kentucky (-108)
Everybody on earth is going to take Kentucky to roll big here given the obvious “let down spot” for Vandy after the Bama win. I’m going a different way. Diego Pavia is legitimately awesome. This team is good. They were good when they beat Virginia Tech Week 1, they were good when they took Missouri to OT at Missouri, and they’re obviously good now. Pavia is an entertainer, he has more eyes on him this week than he has ever had in any stage of his career. I expect him to be at his best, and out-play a Kentucky team that is still too limited offensively to pull away.
Colorado +3.5 vs. Kansas State (-108)
Breaking my rule here - I’m betting a Colorado game again. This number is crazy to me though - this is AVERY JOHNSON ON THE ROAD vs. SHEDEUR SANDERS AND TRAVIS HUNTER AT HOME, and Avery Johnson is favored? Last time we saw him on the road, Johnson threw zero touchdowns, two picks in a 29-point loss and then told the media “that was a weird crowd”. I don’t trust that guy at all. I barely trust Colorado, but barely is more than “not at all”. Colorado has a chance to be a legitimate factor in the Big 12 race, they looked great two weeks ago against UCF, and they have the two best players on the field. That’s enough for me.
UNDERDOG PARLAY (+3578):
Editor’s Note: I’m betting each of these four individually this week. Goal to hit two of the four, and come out profitable. Then putting one extra unit on the parlay. Only have to hit one a season to win the year.
USC ML
LSU ML
Cincinnati ML
Colorado ML
The only one I haven’t written about yet is USC - that just comes down to a value spot play. The Trojans aren’t bad, but their road losses in the Midwest have hurt them in the oddsmakers’ minds. Catching five points against Road Drew Allar is a bit too much. Penn State has to lose somewhere…this feels like a reasonable shot to take.
Now for the return of the man I refer to as Starch Manning:
CARTER ELLIOTT:
When you have someone as special as Gregory with the pen painting pictures and telling stories there is really no need for me to be something I am not. I am a newsletter role player and I shall excel in that role and one day when the time comes for me to have my Robert Horry moment dammit I will be there. But until then my picks are below and my heart is full (shoutout to my seed Leon)
*WEEKLY DISCLAIMER* There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known)
Rutgers -2.5 vs Wisconsin
If there is one thing that teams struggle to do it is pull up to Jersey and win a football game if your football team isn’t good. Don’t let the Wisconsin blowout win over Purdue fool you…I could start for Purdue football right now and that is the deadest team in the land. Wisconsin is a team that really struggles to stop the run which sets up nicely for Rutgers monster RB Mongai and defensively they are very solid and I think won’t be threatened by a bad offensive team in Wisconsin. I like Rutgers to ground and pound the Badgers into submission.
LSU +3.5 vs Ole Miss
LSU +136 vs Ole Miss
This is a game that should be closer to pick 'em in my eyes which has me feeling good to get points for the home team in LSU in this game. The environment in Death Valley is amongst the best in football and it makes it super tough on opponents. I think the environment and defensive playmakers of LSU will be able to make things difficult on Jaxson Dart while LSU will be comfortable and amped up at home to make a statement and get a big win at home. I like LSU so much in this one I will double dip with the points and ML.
Ohio State -3 vs Oregon
This matchup of top 5 teams in Eugene is set up to be a massive showdown but one whereI want to back the Buckeyes to win and cover on the road in Eugene. Oregon to this point of the season has won and has had moments but I wouldn't go as far to say as they have impressed. One thing that sticks out in particular is how Boise State and Jeanty ran all over the Ducks and though the Buckeyes don’t have Jeanty they have two of the best backs in the country in Judkins and Henderson. Even outside of the run game this Ohio State team is truly loaded on both sides of the ball and the Buckeyes defense will be one that will have Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks in hell. I think Ohio State wins this game and gets a big one on the road.
Syracuse vs NC State over 54.5
This is my “ I am a father now over and unders matter” play and this one is pretty simple for me. I look at the scores of a lot of games that these teams have played this season and game after game after game I see totals that go over the set number. NC State has gone over this in 4 out of 6 games this year and Syracuse has gone over this total in 4 out of 5 games. The one thing that might scare you is that NC State does not have Grayson McCall but their true freshman backup QB is fun and electric and will be able to put up points in his own right. #TestMyFatherPlay take the over.
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