Editorās note: This weekās newsletter is entirely un-gated. You can see all picks and read the entire thing. Thereās some announcements inside:
Greg Waddell:
I used to hate running.
Thatās a true statement. You know what else is a true statement?
I run a mile the moment I wake up five days a week right now.
Seems conflicting, no?
When I was little, I wanted to be a baseball play-by-play announcer.
My first introduction to SPORTS was season tickets to the Lansing Lugnuts, a minor league ball club 15 minutes from my childhood home.
I remember falling asleep as a four-year old in bed in 1997 listening to the radio call of the game the moment they won the championship.
I just sort of assumed one day I would stumble my way into it, you know?
Like I never made any conscious decisions throughout my younger years that would have put me on the path toward that goal. I guess thatās just immaturity or something.
In fact, I stopped playing baseball in high school. I dropped out of Journalism school in college. I moved to Kalamazoo to work for an event company, not a media company.
For the better part of 30 years, I have had no idea what Iām doing.
This Sunday is the New York Marathon.
Carterās lovely wife Megan will be running. Sheās a monster.
Not in like a personality way, like sheās the sweetest human and an awesome friend and a precious dog mom and a great wife to Carter and all that.
But sheās also a total bad ass.
Sheās been preparing for what seems like decades now. Iāll text Cart like āwhen you want to record tomorrowā and heāll respond āanytime really, I just gotta ride 26 miles with Meg while she runs tomorrow morning for practiceā
She set her mind to something and sheās going to do it. Itās inspiring as shit. It was probably so much harder than it seemed in texts through her husband.
But sheās doing it. Sheās going to crush it.
Lifeās a marathon, not a sprint.
I got laid off this week. Two months ago I had two full-time salaries. I left one willingly to focus on the other, and leave time for my growing family. Three weeks later (and two days before the job I was willingly leavingās end date, and five days before the college basketball season starts), I get a call telling me Iām laid off. In two weeks, I will have zero full-time salaries.
Iāve been trying to stay positive, and I know everything will work out. But itās been a really weird, introspective week.
Itās very conflicting to feel closer to everything youāve ever wanted professionally than ever before, but also back at the ground floor. 12 hours after I got the bad news, we hosted a Bleacher Report stream that went so well it crashed the app.
Two and a half years ago when I convinced my wife to let me leave a well-paying job in the tech world to ātry sportsā, I made myself a promise that if I made it six months and I found myself back at Zeroā¦.Iād admit I failed, be proud of myself for trying, and go back to the real world.
Two and a half years (and one beautiful baby girl) laterā¦.
And suddenly Iām back at Zero.
There would be no shame whatsoever in following my original promise to myself and tapping out. Itās been a fun, wild, tough run trying this whole sports content thing. The four-year old Me that fell asleep listening to Single-A baseball every night would be proud.
I followed my heart. I ran the race.
But with all due respect to four-year old Me, and two and a half years ago Me, and shit, seven days ago-Meā¦.they donāt know what I know now.
As we get older, we get wiser. We change. And thatās a good thing.
I no longer want to be a play-by-play announcer. I no longer hate running. I no longer am willing to give up on my dreams just because it feels like Iām back at Zero.
Life is a marathon, not a sprint. You donāt have to win every mile to win the race.
Iāve lost the last couple laps dammit. Iāve lost the last couple weeks of this newsletter too.
But make no mistake about it - I wonāt stop running.
ATS picks: Greg (24-25-1), Cart (17-16-1)
1-3 for Greg last week, 2-1 for Carter. We move. Carterās in New York this week at the aforementioned marathon.
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Gregās Picks:
WARNING: RED ALERT: SIRENS: AHHHHHH:
I truly, genuinely read this slate is my favorite slate of the year. Thereās like 100 home teams that I think the line favors. Thatās typically a very very good sign. Seven ATS picks for that reason, plus one much more reasonable than normal parlay, and thatās the motion this week. More quick, to the point write-ups than normal because thereās more than usual and if I write too much Carter will get bored and stop participating in this.
Clemson +3 vs. Notre Dame
Home Dawg x1. Notre Dame has only played one road game against a ranked team - lost 33-20 to Louisville. Clemson - not ranked - but with Dabo going RADIO VENGEANCE MODE this week they might as well be. Hartman is just handsome against good teams away from home. Heās lost this game 100 times before in his career. Statement win for the Tigers.
Maryland +8.5 vs. Penn State
Home Dawg x2. Simple: I think Drew Allar stinks and nobody but me realizes it. Anytime there are a touchdown favorite or more on the road against a better quarterback, Iāll take the better quarterback.
Oklahoma State +6 vs. Oklahoma
Home dawg x3. Sooners are good, still my pick to win the Big 12 - but this is a tough one. The Pokes have won four straight impressive ones, smoking Cincy by 32 last week, West Virginia by 14 on the road the week before, Kansas by 7 the week before, and Kansas State the week before that. Like I said, impressive. Too many points.
Appalachian State -3.5 vs. Marshall
Hereās your weekly LOL why do the books like Marshall? update
App State big.
Kansas +3 at Iowa State
First and only road pick of the week! I just think Kansas is a better team - Jason Bean plays like a blind dog runs, but I kind of love it. Kidās talented as he showed on the final drive to beat Oklahoma. Matt Campbell is doing his best to backdoor his way into the Michigan State job, but they havenāt actually been competitive against anyone good. And ACTUAL FUTURE MICHIGAN STATE HEAD COACH LANCE LEIPOLDāS team is good.
USC +3 vs. Washington
Home dawg x4. Okay so I am a notorious USC hater, I love fading them in the Caleb Williams Era, everyone knows this. This has swung too far in the wrong direction. I imagine Michael Penix will be asking for Calebās autograph after this one. The comeback win against Cal was one of the more impressive things Iāve seen from the Trojans in years. But most importantly - WASHINGTON HASNāT EVEM BEEN PLAYING WELL. Four straight weeks of wins by 20 points or less, including a 9-point win over Stanford and an 8-point dogfight win over Arizona State. Yuck. Give me the Trojans begrudgingly, itās the right play for sure and Iām sprinkling moneyline.
Arizona +2.5. vs. UCLA
Home dawg x5. Arizona is 4-2 in their last six games, with only one score losses to Washington and USC in that span. Good, fun football team! UCLA is 0-2 outright on the road in conference play with losses at Utah and Oregon State. I love the Cats here, they have the better quarterback and if they get out to an early lead, I canāt see UCLA playing catch up the way they did against Colorado.
Gregās Only Parlay of the Day ($100 to win $1061)
Clemson ML vs. Notre Dame
Arizona ML vs. UCLA
USC ML vs. Washington
Three home dawgs I like most, a fun, easy +1061 root.
I also recommend Round Robinning the five ML underdogs - if two hit, profits. If three hit, huge profits. If four or five hit, WEāRE RICH. Message me if you have questions on how to do this and I can put it in the Discord.
Now over to my best friend.
Carter Elliott:
It felt good to come back and give y'all a winning weekā¦granted it was only 2-1 but hey a winning record is a winning record. I type this from a hotel room in New York City fresh off some adult beverages and acquiring a slice from a local place down the street and i must say vibes are high. My wife will be running the NYC Marathon on Sunday morning but I let her know respectfully I canāt fully support her until this slate is attacked and my pics are submittedā¦she hit me with a āI understandā. Thatās absolutely massive foe vibes and my pics this week. Let's get to it.
Notre Dame -3 vs Clemson
This is a bet with two teams that are going in two different directions. Clemson seems to be in free fall. Dabo is being snippy and saying some wild things in the media, Clade Kulbnik has been inconsistent, and The Tigers find themselves at 4-4 coming off a loss to NC State. On the other hand Notre Dame has been rolling as of late and are playing some really good football. The really good Notre Dame defense should rattle the inconsistent Clade Klubnik and Sam Hartman and Audric Estime should do enough against a good Clemson defense to win this game and cover.
Ole Miss -3 vs Texas A&M
Ole Miss has been one of the best offenses in the country (11th overall) and come into this game with the momentum as they take on the Aggies who are losers of 2 of their last three games. I like this number for Ole Miss at home, I think they are the more balanced team and though they are going up against a stout Aggies defense I think at home they should be able to tire the defense out and keep them on the field for good periods of time with large plays. There is also some injury concerns with one of Texas A&Mās main rushing threats in LeāVeon Moss. Though he might play I think he will be hobbled and if he is that will put too much pressure on QB Max Johnson. I like the Rebels in this game.
Arizona +3 vs UCLA
After watching Arizona the past couple of weeks I have found myself kind of falling in love with this program. They play smart and fun football, they have a freshman QB killer, and the team loves and plays hard for their coach. UCLA has played some good ball this year but they seem to turn it over at an inopportune times and I think at home Zona can carry momentum from their big win last week. I like Arizona to cover this one.