The Noise Machine
On memories, family, "more", the return of the Newsletter and the Dakotas
My favorite number is 12.
That’s where the “12” in @gwizzy12 comes from. Insert “Call 12” jokes now.
Not because of Tom Brady either. In fact, go ahead and take a guess what #12 was my hero growing up.
If you guessed Alfonso Soriano…..you’re extremely wrong.
It was this guy:
True story!
You see, my very earliest memories as far back as I can remember came from one place: Oldsmobile Park in Lansing, MI, home of the Lansing Lugnuts, also known as the 1997 Midwest League Champs.
They were the Single-A affiliate of the Chicago Cubs back then. But more importantly they were my heroes.
I vividly remember (as a newly-turned 4 YEAR OLD) asking my Mom and Dad every morning if there was a Lugnuts game that night. If they said yes, I would barely eat that day I was so excited.
I remember the 20-minute drive to the stadium. On the way there it felt like two hours. On the way home, it felt like a mile. I remember the fountains outside, running through them more times than I could count. I remember the Kids Zone in left field, complete with a MPH pitch speedometer and big inflatable slides. I remember the grassy hills in both left and right field, and I remember always leaving our designated seats so I could go wait for home run balls in them.
I remember the playoffs. 1997 - little me was just barely beginning to understand what was going on. But god it was ELECTRIC in my little 4-year old head. To me, that must have been the World Series.
I remember the win in the championship game. Well…kind of. I remember it was so late past my bed time we had to leave before it was over. I remember listening to the game on the radio for a few minutes, promising myself in my head that I wouldn’t fall asleep.
Just…don’t….fall…..asleeeeeee
The next thing I remember, I was in my bed, somehow in my pajamas, somehow perfectly tucked in, lights off, as comfy as a 4-year old could be.
I opened my eyes, and I saw my mom scurrying out the door, hoping I wouldn’t wake up. She had somehow moved me, asleep, from the back seat, up the stairs, out of my clothes, into pajamas, into my bed and under the covers without my even noticing. But that’s not all she did…
She also left the radio on.
I woke back up and listened as the Lansing Lugnuts struck out the side in the top of the 9th to win the 1997 Midwest League championship.
For the next 10 years, I was obsessed with baseball.
I don’t know if it was the feeling of celebrating a championship, or the parade, or Jason Layne’s autograph, or the stadium, or the inflatables, or the food, or just being with my mom and dad making great memories…probably a mix of it all.
But that was my everything.
And then I grew up.
And after 10 years of obsessing over baseball, collecting cards, going to Lugnuts games, writing down stats, watching Baseball Tonight, playing MLB Slugfest and plenty more….I grew out of it.
And in sequence, I discovered the following:
MTV
girls
basketball
AXE body spray
Fall Out Boy
shell necklaces
alcohol
rap music
my wife
podcasting
I slowly, but somehow quickly, went from being that cute little kid that just loved going to baseball games with his mom and dad, into being a middle schooler, then a high schooler, then a rapper, then a college student, then a boyfriend, then a college graduate, then a Marketing Associate, then a fiance, then a Marketing Manager, then a husband, then a Director of Marketing, then a podcaster, then a dad.
Life gets in the way. Things change. You forget the things you once loved. And it’s okay!
Three weeks ago I went to a minor league baseball game with my mom and dad again.
This time I brought my daughter.
She’s not 4 years old, and she’s not obsessed with baseball, but she did do the “more” sign language at the field the entire time we watched.
She loved it (I think). I know I did.
She fell asleep in the car on the ride home listening to Olivia Rodrigo (that’s her favorite).
When we got home I moved her from the car seat, up the stairs, out of her clothes, into pajamas and into her crib.
Then I stopped. I took a second to watch her sleep - the girl was OUT. Big day at the ballpark.
I went to turn on the white noise machine that plays softly while she sleeps every time she goes down. I turned it on. Then I turned it off.
Then I pulled out my phone, lowered the volume, put on the Olivia Rodrigo album and left it playing on top of her noise machine. And I could have swoooooorn I saw a smile while she slept.
Life is cyclical. As we grow up, we become this giant glob of memories - bits and pieces of things or people that mattered to us, threads of things that once meant something.
We may go years, or even decades without feeling the warmth of some of those things. But we usually rediscover them and feel them once again.
Luckily we don’t have to wait decades for college football. It comes, and it goes, and then it comes again.
We love it, we watch it, we bet it, we win some, we lose some, and we do it week after week for four months a year, every year.
I was worried last week when I asked Cart if we were bringing back the newsletter this year. We’re busier now. We have a business, and wives and kids and lives to attend to.
I was afraid he wouldn’t want more. Maybe it’s time to grow up. Maybe it’s time to grow out of the bets and just watch the games. Maybe we don’t 100% wanna do this anymore. So I sent a text:
He might as well have sign languaged “MORE” to me.
Let’s go to work. It’s gonna be a hell of a season.
Structural updates: The newsletter is free to all this year. But it gets sent to Discord members a few days early. We’re doing Previews and Recaps for all the biggest games of the season on our YouTube channel. Check them out.
GREG’S PICKS:
Every solo bet I am betting this week (with write ups):
Colorado -9.5 (-110) vs. North Dakota State
As my good friend Deion Hill-Ford says…Legacy game here. Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter were too good for lower level football. Enter an 8-3 North Dakota State team with a brand new head coach that lost 33-16 to South Dakota State last year then 49-24 to North Dakota last year??? And Colorado’s players and coaches are being respectful???? Out of principle, you have to expect Shadeur to carve up essentially a mid-major defense. I’ve seen this line at -10 but buy it down to -9.5 (which is where I got it a few days ago).
Minnesota ML (+110) vs. North Carolina
UNC is planning to play two quarterbacks…which we all know means nobody is happy with Drake Maye’s successor. Minnesota has incoming transfer Max Brosmer (who led the FCS in passing yards last year), along with key pieces back at running back and receiver. The Minnesota defense held Omarion Hampton to 40 yards rushing last year, which bodes will for a new era where shaky quarterback play may be imminent. All five offensive line starters are new for UNC, which gives the Minnesota defense a chance to shine. Most importantly though, this is a classic OOOOH LOOK AT ME I’M PJ FLECK AND I STILL MATTER game. In PJ Fleck’s 11 years as a head coach, he has four losing seasons. He has followed each previous losing season with a winning record the next year. Last season, the Gophers limped to a 6-7 finish…these are the games PJ Fleck wins to keep instilling belief amidst his many gimmicks. Home game at night, row the boat.
Eastern Illinois +28 (-110) vs. Illinois
Eastern Illinois ML (+2500)
OOoooooOOoooh Greg you’re so crazy YEAH WELL GUESS WHAT THEY CALLED VINCENT VAN GOGH CRAZY TOO WHEN HE CUT OFF HIS EAR BUT HE KEPT PAINTING* You’re not gonna talk me out of this one. Eastern Illinois was GOOD last year at the FCS level. 8-3 last season. They led the FCS in turnover margin. They return 18 starters!!! (EIGHTEEN!) 9 on each side of the ball! Illinois returns their shitty QB (Luke Altmyer), they lost their top 2 WRs, the star WR that transferred in couldn’t get on the field at Ole Miss, their starting RB left to be the BACKUP AT PURDUE. Times are bad for Bret Bielema (who blocked me on twitter). Illinois went 5-7 last season and DID NOT WIN A GAME BY MORE THAN 6 POINTS. I REPEAT THEY DID NOT WIN A GAME BY MORE THAN 6 POINTS. They got worse, EIU got better, a 28 point spread is insane. I’m sprinkling money out of respect before I end up like Van Gogh
*EDITOR’S NOTE: Vincent Van Gogh did not keep painting, he began suffering delusions, shot himself in the chest and died a year later
Michigan State -13.5 (-115) vs. Florida Atlantic
The last time these two programs met, Michigan State won 44-0 in 2011. A lot has changed since then. FAU went to a Final Four, hired Dusty May, lost Dusty May, hired The Devil John Jakus and is now projected preseason #22 according to JJ Metz. In hoops that is. Michigan State has also changed a lot since then. Mark Dantonio went from CULT HERO MARK DANTONIO in the eyes of Spartan twitter to smh he only won 3 games gtfo he stinks mark dantonio then they hired a sexual deviant that liked lamborghinis, catch phrases, pit bulls and photoshoots, then they fired the sexual deviant then they hired a guy names Jonathan that seems totally completely absolutely fine. You knew all that already but I just wanted to make sure we’re up to speed. Totally completely absolutely fine should be good enough here - FAU’s last win vs. a power conference team came in 2007 against Minnesota. Their new QB (Cam Fancher) comes in from Marshall (who was also bad - 11 TDs, 11 INTs for a 6-7 team). Aidan Chiles should hit the over himself. I like a feel-good MSU win by 17+.
Stanford +9 (-110) vs. TCU
Stanford ML (+260)
Two teams that underwhelmed last year, but could be trending in opposite directions. TCU finished 5-7 last year under Sonny Dykes and got mostly decimated via the transfer portal on defense, while their key additions in the secondary come from Old Dominion, Austin Peay and Tulsa. Stanford was also bad last year, but they return a ton of legitimately good football players. Quarterback Ashton Daniels gets his top three targets back in Tiger Bachmeier, Elic Ayomanor and Sam Roush. Ayomanor is capable of WOW moments in an offense that loves trick plays - but they may not even need many tricks against this ugly TCU defense. HOME DOGS ARENT DOGS THEY’RE….TREES? (Wolves!). Go Cardinal. Sprinkle the ML at home, but I’m playing spread too.
Oklahoma State -9.5 (-112) vs. South Dakota State
Respect to South Dakota State…but this is once again disrespectful to the best of the best. Oklahoma State has the best running back in the country. Ollie Gordon is INSANE…get familiar if you aren’t already. But they also return starting QB Alan Bowman and their top two WRs from a team that made the Big 12 title last season! They’re the Big 12 favorites according to some! Yes South Dakota State has won back to back FCS championships. Cute. It really is. You know who else would have done that? Oklahoma State. Mike Gundy is 15-0 against FCS opponents and this is a KEY NUMBER alert right under that 10 spot. Take the Pokes.
Indiana -21.5 (-112) vs. FIU
Curt-Cig-Net-Tee… CLAP CLAP CLAPCLAPCLAP! Huge bit of research here - Indiana’s fiery new head ball coach loves to beat the ever-living shit out of overmatched opponents in his home openers. (Wait what really you mean the lunatic who said Ohio State and Michigan should be ready cuz he’s on the block now loves to run it up against bad teams???) Here’s his last six home openers as the head coach at James Madison and Elon:
Those are real numbers! This guy is a giant asshole! And a great ball coach! And I love that!!!! Kurtis Roarke is IU’s QB now (he was awesome at Ohio) and they brought in 30 portalees, many of whom should be talent upgrades and start. FIU has won 9 games in 4 years. They qualify as the type that Cignetti likes to go full Jeffery Dahmer on.
Akron +50 (-112) vs. Ohio State
Alright I get it, Ohio State is good. Potentially very good. I’m with it, I really am. But here’s the thing. 50 is 50. 50 is so many damn points. You gotta have a reason to want to do that to a team! Last season, Ohio State also had hella talent on offense (and Marvin Harrison Jr.) and they only scored 50+ total points in a game once! Their second highest total of the season was 41! Last year in their first noncon game they beat Youngstown State (not even an FBS opponent) 35-7! In the Ryan Day era, Ohio State has only covered 50 points 5 times in 64 games. OSU’s offense should lean heavy on their two-headed rushing attack here rather than airing it out for quick scores. Akron brought in a competent Power 4 QB (Ben Finley, from NC State and Cal before that). As long as he doesn’t poop his diaper in this one they should cover 50.
Michigan vs. Fresno State U46 (-112)
Something you’ll likely hear from me a lot this year…Michigan’s QB situation is a problem. Alex Orji is not a capable passer. Michigan’s defense will need to take this one seriously as Fresno has a star at QB (but lost their top WR and top TE). All three of last season’s non-conference games for Michigan went UNDER 46…the game totals were 33 vs. East Carolina, 42 vs. UNLV and 37 vs. Bowling Green. That was with JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum and Roman Wilson. This defense is just as strong, if not stronger. This offense may be inept. Love the under here.
Notre Dame ML (+124) at Texas A&M
While both teams have big dreams for success this year, only one was able to put up a fight against quality opponents last year. Notre Dame picked up three wins over ranked teams, while Texas A&M went a miserable 0-5 against ranked foes. This is a game where experience under center will matter, and Notre Dame has to like their chances. Riley Leonard (incoming transfer from Duke) was one of the best quarterbacks in the country last season prior to a devastating injury. Much like Sam Hartman before him, he steps into a quarterback-friendly system ready to captain the ship. On the other end, Conner Weigman enters this season as the starter for the first time in three years at Texas A&M. While he has shown flashes, it is a tall task to ask Weigman to face this Notre Dame defense in his first season opening start.
Week 1 Longshot Parlay: (+9674)
Minnesota ML vs. North Carolina (SEE ABOVE)
UMass ML vs. Eastern Michigan
REVENGE SPOT!! EMU got UMass by 2 last season, but the game was extremely fluky. UMass turned it over four times despite stuffing nearly half of EMU’s rush attempts and out-gaining them offensively. UMass QB Taisun Phommachanh is back for his sixth year in college football, and he is a master of explosive plays. Eastern Michigan got destroyed by departures in the transfer portal, most notably in the secondary, where their top returnees are Quentavius Scandrett and Daiquan White, who both graded outside of the top seven EMU defenders in coverage ratings last season. EMU has lost its last four road openers. Back the home team looking for revenge that outplayed the other squad last season.
Northwestern ML vs. Miami (Ohio)
Star QB Brett Gabbert is back for the RedHawks after suffering a gruesome leg injury that ended his season last year. We’re expecting some rust in his first competitive showing in nearly a calendar year. Historically Miami (OH) has been a mess against Big Ten opponents, as the RedHawks are just 1-17 all-time against Big Ten teams. On the other side, Northwestern was quietly one of the best values in CFB betting last year, going an impressive 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. The Wildcats return leading rusher Cam Porter along with two of their top three receivers. With Mississippi State transfer Mike Wright under center, an upgrade in the passing game could be expected as well. Take the home team.
West Virginia ML vs. Penn State
Penn State enters as a road favorite here, and for good reason given their talent on paper. Last season, Penn State beat West Virginia 38-15 in the opener. But despite their dominance in that game in Happy Valley, Drew Allar had an up and down season under center last year, and the Nittany Lions opted to replace both coordinators heading into this season. With a new-look offense and defense, this won’t be as easy as it looks for James Franklin’s squad. Dual threat QB Garrett Greene is back for the Mountaineers, along with a duo of running backs that provide both power and speed looks. West Virginia turned their season around last year with elite play from both lines, they led the Big 12 in sacks, and their offensive line allowed just 10 sacks of their own. If they can get pressure on Allar, the Mountaineers can force him into plenty of uncomfortable throws that he consistently missed for much of last season.
Florida ML vs. Miami
Both the Gators and Hurricanes have plenty of new faces coming into this season, none bigger than former Washington State QB Cam Ward. While Pro Football Focus marked Ward as having 24 “big-time throws” last season, he was also extremely turnover-prone, throwing 21 “turnover-worthy passes” as well. That’s a dangerous formula for a team with plenty of transfers in key starting roles offensively, especially on the road at The Swamp. Both Billy Napier and Mario Cristobal desperately need a win here, and this is a game where it’s better to have a game manager like Graham Mertz returning at quarterback than a boom or bust talent like Ward making his team debut on the road. Expect a turnover or two to make the difference and swing the game toward the Gators.
Notre Dame ML at Texas A&M (SEE ABOVE)
Take Care of Business All Weekend Favorites Parlay: (+350)
commentary in italics for any games I haven’t hit on yet
Colorado ML vs. North Dakota State
Michigan State ML vs. FAU
Georgia ML vs. Clemson
staying away from the spread here but I need some action on UGA against a Clemson program that continues to fall further and further away from relevancy as Dabo Swinney does the Tom Izzo THE PORTAL IS BAD FOR THE GAME nonsense
Oklahoma State ML vs. South Dakota State
Indiana ML vs. FIU
Nebraska ML vs. UTEP
Dylan Raiola Dylan Raiola Dylan Raiola Fat Mahomes Dylan Raiola Dylan Raiola Dylan Raiola
South Carolina ML vs. Old Dominion
the video game tells me Nyck Harbor is fast
Boise State ML vs. Georgia Southern
Boise may be the best non Power 4 team in the sport and they should take care of business here
Alabama ML vs. Western Kentucky
Buying Jalen Milroe big this year and Deboer wants am early statement
Kentucky ML vs. Southern Miss
Former 5-star recruit QB Brock Vandegriff against a miserable Southern Miss program
Michigan ML vs. Fresno State
Georgia Tech ML vs. Georgia State
Georgia Tech is my team this year after that electric Haynes King performance in Week 0
UCLA ML vs. Hawaii
UCLA’s coach that bumbled his way through the Big Ten Media Day against a Hawaii team that was thoroughly unimpressive against a Delaware State team that they were 40 point favorites against. Advantage bumbling coach (it all may be a schtick to throw people off the scent of his actually good football team)
WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE DAKOTAS? PARLAY: (-149)
Colorado ML vs. North Dakota State
Oklahoma State ML vs. South Dakota State
I couldn’t not do this when I realized they really gave us two FCS opponents from the Dakotas against the best QB and best RB in the country BOTH AT HOME UNDER 10 POINT FAVORITES. Come on now. Pair them together get yourself a -149 lollipop.
Now over to the grown man that I just wrote a 3,000-word intro about comparing him to my infant daughter…
CART’S PICKS:
Following up a newsletter write up from Gregory is always a tough act to follow. From the story telling to the special ability he has to tie a story together, the kid is special (I’m honored to be compared to Murph she's awesome). I don’t do memories I just bet so let me get right to the picks but before I do let me work on my dad joke material with the birth of my son less than a month away.
What do Greg and his daughter have in common?
No it isn’t their blood type (Greg is shaped like he’s O Positive)...it is that neither he or Murph have ever beat me in one on one hoops.
There are no such things as guarantees in the betting world, but what I can guarantee the fine readers of this newsletter is that every bet that I tell you about I, Carter Ramone Elliott IV, will be placing set bet and #research will always be at the root of the picks (some will have heart or gut feeling factored in but if it is I will make that known). Let’s get to it.
Colorado -9.5 vs North Dakota State
Good FCS schools deserve respect but it has gone way too far in the direction of North Dakota State in my opinion. Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter have been hearing all the critics somewhat waiting on them to lose this first game to victory lap them and Coach Deion Sanders. But here is the thing, Sanders and this Colorado team have talent advantages at many positions and the home field advantage will surely play a factor for the Buffs. The Bison will be missing their All American Safety Cole Wisniewski which will surely be something Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter take advantage of and on the offensive side of the ball for the Bison they will have two interior lineman making their first start. I just think the home field advantage combined with the talent advantage Colorado will have at key positions will be enough to secure a double digit win.
Notre Dame +3 vs Texas A&M
Marcus Freeman is going into year 3 and not shying away from a big road game to start the season as they travel to Texas A&M to play in one of the toughest environments to play in the first game for the Aggies new head coach Mike Elko. Across from Mike Elko his former QB Riley Leonard will be suiting up for the Irish while he has to SETTLE for Connor Wiegman. Wiegman has been solid in his first two seasons in spots but this is his first year with the full reins (a big on taking for a QB with a brand new head coach). Surface level is a big task for Weigman now paired with the fact that he will be facing a great Notre Dame defense that has NFL level talent, especially in the secondary. I trust Riley Leonard over Wiegman and defense travels and Notre Dame has a better one so give me the Irish in a game I think they have a good chance to win outright I will take Notre Dame with the points gladly.
Oklahoma State -9.5 vs South Dakota State
I understand and respect the FCS defending national champs and realize the talent they possess. They don’t have Ollie Gordon, They don’t have Alan Bowman, they don’t get to play at home and they aren’t playing another FCS school. Oklahoma State is a team many think will be a real factor to win the Big 12 and a team that many believe can do that should win by double digits at home. If all else fails and goes haywire in this game you give it to Ollie Gordon 100 times and win by 10 and make sure he grabs an uber after the game.
Happy Week 1 Betting…Cheers
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