The official Sleepers Conference Tourney Longshot Betting Guide
Bet wisely (but also fun-ly)
Hello its Greg. Conference tournament week is upon us. After consulting Carter this morning on the best values for betting conference tournaments, we have settled on some longshots and are ready to publish our OFFICIAL LONGSHOT BETTING GUIDE for the rest of conference tourney week.
If you need some education (and laughs) first, watch our FULL POWER 6 CONFERENCE TOURNEY episode, featuring some big name guests:
And don’t forget to sign up for the FREE CONFERENCE TOURNEY PICKEM contest. Winner gets $200 and a hat!
Onto the Guide….
SOME SIMPLE RULES
For the rest of this guide, I will speak to a “bankroll”. Carter and I each decided to set aside a certain amount of money on these picks, the goal is to make double what we put in (and we only need one of these to hit to do so). The plays will have a percentage next to them - which is the % of the bankroll that we placed on the bet. Your bankroll can be anything, it can be $10, $20, $50, $100, or if you are Calvin Ridley, $1500. If we say “10%” and your bankroll is $100, you would be $10 on the play if you tail.
Odds are available via Draftkings.
ALRIGHT HERE WE GO
PLAY #1 NEBRASKA TO WIN BIG TEN TOURNEY (5%) +40000
Such an absurd number begs for a sprinkle here. Nebraska finished the season with three straight road wins at Penn State, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin. Weird shit happens, I’d be absolutely shocked if they won this tourney, but if their last 3 games were in the tourney…they’d be in the championship.
PLAY #2 MICHIGAN STATE TO WIN BIG TEN TOURNEY (10%) +2500
The Spartans have been bad - yes. But this is looking for value and their draw sets up nicely. They have to get through three teams they already beat this season (Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue) to make the championship. Izzo March magic yadda yadda….it could happen. And maybe they get lucky and avoid Illinois when they get there.
PLAY #3 IOWA STATE TO WIN BIG 12 TOURNEY (5%) +3500
I like the Cyclones’ draw here. Texas Tech finished the regular season with a whimper, Baylor is super injured (and almost blew a 30 point lead to Iowa State three days ago). They only need to win three games to win the whole thing, they’re desperate and Izaiah Brockington could be the one player to throw his team on his back and drag them to March Madness.
PLAY #4 SETON HALL TO WIN BIG EAST TOURNEY (20%) +1600
Carter and I both LOVE Seton Hall. They won 5 straight to end the regular season, including a big double digit comeback win at Creighton. Jared Rhoden is a tough shot maker. They’re grossly underseeded compared to their ceiling and they’re undervalued as a result. Sprinkle the Pirates, who are my biggest pick for a run in March.
PLAY # 5 WAKE FOREST TO WIN ACC TOURNEY (20%) +1000
Alondes Williams is the most likelt ACC player to Kemba Walker his way through this tourney. They’ll have to get through Duke in the semi, but they’re capable of playing the Blue Devils tough and their March hopes rely on getting hot this week.
PLAY # 6 ALABAMA TO WIN SEC TOURNAMENT (20%) +1500
The Tide could lose first round, or the Tide could win four straight this week and 6 straight starting next week and I wouldn’t be shocked at all. This is the best value play simply because they’ve shown they can beat any team in the country (and have done so a ton this year), and they’re valued like they’re a middle of the pack team. Tough luck with facing Kentucky in the quarterfinals, but they’ll have their legs underneath them off a cupcake first round win and let’s hope Kentucky comes out slow in their first game of the week.
PLAY # 7 OREGON TO WIN PAC 12 TOURNAMENT (20%) +1500
Oregon has played themself off the bubble lately…they NEED a run this week. Nobody doubts the Ducks’ talent or Dana Altman’s coaching ability. But it’s time for them to prove it. They have played well in many of their biggest games this season, under the bright lights with the season on the line, I expect the Ducks to show up.
If just one of these hits, you win close to double your initial bankroll. If a few of these get to the championship round, you’ll have some good hedge opportunities. Let’s root for a little madness…there’s nothing more fun than that.
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