This is the Final SleepersBets Newsletter You Will Receive
Wait...what?
A note from the authors: HI! IT’S BEEN AWHILE! This newsletter is full of the usuals: jokes, Drake references and tons of bets. It’s also the last newsletter you will receive the normal way you have received these. It’s also the first newsletter of the 2023 CFB season, which we get is ironic.
Read on to hear about the changes, but in summary - we have turned off paid subscriptions and refunded any out-standing fees from the Substack. We have a new private home for future newsletters - and we’d love it if you join our Discord to receive them in the future.
A quick state of the Sleepers:
It’s poetic that Drake drops this week, isn’t it.
Let me summarize our last few years as “The Sleepers” for you in the context of Drake albums/mixtapes:
December 2018, we start a podcast that 6 people listen to with a mysterious third member named Ben Luger (Room for Improvement)
December 2020, after doing some semi-regular Spotify Live rooms, we feel spited by Spotify for a reason we wish to keep secret(!), and decide mutually to “start taking this seriously” with weekly episodes and add videos (Comeback Season)
June 2021, Jeff Goodman discovers us in a Spotify Live room and slides in our DMs asking for our phone numbers (So Far Gone)
October 2021, we show up to Big Ten Media Day and disrupt the entire event (Take Care)
March 2022, we make trips as credentialed media to Philadelphia for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament and New Orleans for the Final Four (Nothing Was the Same)
November 2022, we begin College Hoops To Go, a travel series that puts us on the map across the Big Ten (If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late)
What a time to be alive.
Fitting - that’s where you find us now, moments before the opening weekend of the 2023 College Football season. Ever since that fateful night in December 2018 that Carter Elliott and I started podcasting together, summers have been critical - we always stress about “what’s next”. This year was no different. Our Views on where to take Sleepers Media are always changing.
In college sports, everything is changing too - conferences are all but gone, players are transferring, then transferring again, then transferring back to where they transferred from just to transfer again, money rules everything. One day AJ Hoggard is mocking him on the sideline, and the next day Tom Izzo suddenly has More Life.
At the end of our Sleepers summer meetings this year, we decided we had one goal and one goal only: While everything in college sports keeps changing, we want to become a constant. We want to give college sports fans something they can rely on, every month, every week, every single day, that they love. We want to give them a community - a place where they can know the names and stories of people who love college sports as much as they do.
I don’t know why I’m saying “they”, because I’m talking to you. If you’re reading this, it’s The Sleepers. We want to be your favorite people in sports media, we want to out-work anyone else in the industry, blue-collar style, and make the most entertaining content you enjoy. We want to stay low and build. We want to make college sports more fun. And we want to do it every day - which is why we now have daily episodes, Monday-Friday, and we will for the rest of the year too.
It’s going to take some work, but we love work. In order to do this right, we had to make some changes. Bear with me because at first this might feel like you got stung by a Scorpion:
We have a Discord now - we strongly encourage you to join, as it is our community and we are going to grow this thing into something awesome
It’s $9.99 a month to join (covers the cost of us paying monthly fees to upload 30+ hours of podcasts to Apple/Spotify), but will come with some ‘perks’
SleepersBets newsletters have moved to a new secret(!!) “site”, which will only be made available to Discord members (this one I’m sending you now is the last one you will receive for free if you don’t join the Discord)
Discord comes with other perks like: we read your comments every day, some live watchalongs once CBB season starts, giveaways, Care Packages and more
If you don’t want to join, that’s OK - we get it. If you do join, THANK YOU!
We have a lot of exciting things in store for this season. But for now, college football is here, and it’s time to be the Certified Lover Boys degenerate bettors that we are. Let’s get to it!
Week 0 College Football SleepersBets Preview
Carter Elliott:
OnLY SiCKos GaMBLE On WEek ZERo GAmes?!?!?! Yeah well guess what I got a mean case of the sniffles. College football is back and with that is the return of #SleepersBets. Gregory and I had a heart to heart last night and we realized that we typically do our best when we are #aligned, not necessarily about who is right or wrong but being aligned is key. If there is value out there we shall locate it, if there is a long shot parlay worth a sprinkle we shall locate it, and god forbid we spot that twinkle in a teams eye we shall locate and take advantage of it. This season is going to be a long and profitable one I am manifesting that shit, so without further ado here are my week zero bets:
Florida International +11 vs Louisiana Tech
Florida International was expected to be one of the worst teams in D1 last season, but as LA Tech found out last year this team has some fight to them. FIU pulled upsets last season vs New Mexico State (16 point dogs), Charlotte (14 point dog), and La Tech (6.5 point dog). Stats like that alone are ones I love but this is also a narrative bet because I was told last season that Hank Bachmeier was some great QB (Boise State) and he proceeded to be benched and ran out of town. La Tech will also be without their starting RB Marquis Crosby (918 yds 9 TDs) last season which means alot will be on Hank’s shoulders in this air raid offense and I don’t think he will be as good as people think. It seems that La Tech thinks that Bachmeier was misused at Boise State and putting him in an air raid offense will unlock him. That's very optimistic but there are alot of players that are never unlocked no matter what system they are in, and I think Bachmeier is one of those guys. FIU has a dual threat QB and a knack for playing spoiler and with this being a conference matchup I think this will be a battle. I like FIU to cover in this game.
Hawaii +17.5 vs Vanderbilt
The good ole trusty Vanderbilt vs Hawaii bet is one that I can never seem to keep myself away from and this year is no different. For starters Vanderbilt stinks and I don’t think they should be favored by more than 3 scores against any team.Vanderbilt has failed to cover when they are favored by double digits 7 of the last 10 games. There may be a talent gap and Vanderbilt might be at home but I think Hawaii can compete enough to keep things competitive. Also there will be alot of motivation for this Hawaii team with the recent fires in Maui (over 50 players on the roster are from Hawaii) so they will be fired up and play hard and hopefully give their fans some relief and happiness.
Notre Dame -20.5 vs Navy
I know Navy is going to be a popular pick for some reasons including the game being in Dublin and Navy keeping it close last year but there is one factor being overlooked (outside of Notre Dame adding Sam Hartman). Navy has a new coach…their previous coach who has been the head man for the last 15 years is gone and in comes a new head coach and staff along with that. Unlike other schools Navy can’t work the transfer portal the way schools typically do when they add a new coach. The previous head coach's biggest attribute in my eyes is he had a knack for competing/winning the big games. The new head coach and staff have already mentioned installing more uptempo offense which I think will lead to mistakes and less time winning the possession game. This puts the ball in Sam Hartman’s hands more and I truly think he was the missing piece for this Notre Dame team who I think wants to shake off the feeling of the slow start last year and get off on the right foot. I like the Fighting Irish to cover.
New Mexico State -6.5 vs Umass
Dawg it’s Umass.
Greg Waddell:
So I’m gonna just cut to the chase here - we have made you read 1,358 words already and in 100% honesty…I love all of Cart’s plays. Not even lying either. He wasn’t kidding when he said we are best at betting when we are #aligned and I wouldn’t dare shake things up. I am SHOCKED he didn’t include anything on his USC Trojans in the first opportunity to do so - is he nervous?? Does he know deep down they are fraudulent and Caleb Williams isn’t a winner as long as he paints his nails??? Honestly…..Nevermind.
So while I am not going to add any individual against-the-spread plays, all of Cart’s will be on my card. But I am going to start this CFB betting season with what I am best at: creative parlays and other fun ways to bet. Let’s get to it:
TD ROUND ROBIN
If you’re in the Discord you’ve seen me talk about the Home Run Round Robins - they are the most fun way to bet I’ve ever participated in. And now we get to try them out with football. NFL is going to be the easier play here, but if you want to get a taste of how fun they are, this is what I’m running for Saturday:
Notes: Blake Horvath is QB1 on Navy’s listed depth chart. If they get near the goal-line at all, I love his value at +350 here. You give me a guy named Mario Williams on USC, I’m going to bet him to score touchdowns. Brionne Penny is a SDST wide-out expected to take on a larger role this season. Steven McBride (former Kansas WR) is now at Hawaii and I expect a splash, and finally Sterling Galban is a former Texas Tech WR that was very productive for Jacksonville State last season.
The goal with RRs is to stagger the wagers so that if 2 of 5 hit around +300 odds, you make a profit. If 3 of 5 hit, you win big, and if 4 or 5 hit, you’re rich.
The odds are a bit smaller here with less to choose from, so I recommend going:
60% on 2s, 30% on 3s, 5% on 4s, 5% on 5s. On a $100 wager, that would look like:
$6 on each 2-way combo ($6x10=$60)
$3 on each 3-way combo ($3x10=$30)
$1 on each 4-way combo ($1x5=$5)
$4 on the 5-way combo ($5x1=$5)
Kinda confusing, but it makes sense once you do one or two. Start small and see if you like it!
My wife says “I don’t get the Round Robins”. I say: Her Loss.
LONGSHOT PARLAY OF THE WEEK:
Hawaii ML (+650) vs. Vanderbilt
USC 1Q ML (-700) vs. San Jose State
San Diego State ML (-142) vs. Ohio
Notre Dame 1H ML (-950) vs. Navy
FIU ML (+340) vs. Louisiana Tech
+7003 odds on this bad boy. Many of the plays Carter laid out the reasons for already, but I truly believe Hawaii and FIU both have real chances to WIN and not just cover, and the one play I’d add is San Diego State ML - just a totally disrespectful line when 1) SDST is the better program, 2) SDST is at home, 3) SDST returns their QB. Love love love that play.
G-TEASY TEASE OF THE WEEK:
USC -17.5
Hawaii +30.5
San Diego State +10
Notre Dame -8
Teasing these four plays by 13 points to get -140 odds. Truly not very worried about this one.
Happy betting, good luck, and For All The Dogs across Sleepers Nation, we salute you.