this weekend's plays (three days early cuz I like the slate)
#SleepersBets
Hello everyone! I mentioned it in the last post, but I’m going to repeat it because we picked up a handful of new subscribers (awesome)…these newsletters are entirely free now! I can’t seem to figure out how to remove the paid options on Substack, so if you do choose to pay something, kudos to you for exerting positive karma into your life, but know that it is not intended to be a paid thing anymore.
Also - to reiterate week 1’s disclaimer - while I have had some INSANE good luck lately with some parlays, I am by no means a betting expert or a great handicapper. I bet for fun only - and look for some nice long shots that can pay out in a really fun way with some good fortune. So if you tail these every week, please know the following:
I love you
You probably won’t win greater than 50% of the time
We only need to win like 1 in 15 of the parlays to make a profit
I’m going to be hosting a live podcast on Thursday night on Spotify Greenroom with the actual Parlay betting GOAT - Blair Montgomery. This man has won THREE consecutive weeks of a massive parlay netting him over $200K in winnings. Crazy!
Download the Greenroom app and make a profile to listen in for that….should be a fun one.
I’m feeling the good vibes this week so I got the picks together for the weekend a few days early. Tomorrow I’m going to send out a special Same Game Parlay for the Thursday night game - no idea how that will go but it’s always a fun way to bet the primetime slots.
Onto the picks…
The only against the spread pick I love this weekend:
Rutgers -2 @ Northwestern
Rutgers was humming along at 3-0 before they got thrown into the fire pit of @ Michigan, vs. Ohio State, vs. Michigan State back to back. They played Michigan tight and although they lost to MSU by 18, that game felt a lot closer throughout. Northwestern on the other hand, lost to MSU by 17 and that felt like a 30 point blowout. They’re coming off a 56-7 loss to Nebraska and then a bye week, hopefully they used the week off to remind themselves over and over and over again how bad they are. I think Rutgers smells blood in the form of a Big Ten team that isn’t a monster, and goes for the kill.
An NCAAF Parlay I will be playing (+2183):
Kansas State ML (+205) vs. Iowa State
Boise State ML (-195) vs. Air Force
Rutgers ML (-125) @ Northwestern
Virginia Tech ML (+175) vs. Pittsburgh
My take: Riding two reasonably large underdogs at home (Kansas State and Virginia Tech) against teams I just don’t think are that good. Boise State (my heroes after last week) we have to ride out of principle, and Rutgers in my favorite pickem game of the week against an awful Northwestern team. Like the odds here, sprinkle a little for a 21:1 payout.
THE NFL Underdog Parlay of the week (+8295):
Cardinals ML (+145) @ Browns
Panthers ML (+105) vs. Vikings
Seahawks ML (+185) @ Steelers
Raiders ML (+155) @ Broncos
Chargers ML (+130) @ Ravens
My take: Nice mix of early slate, late afternoon and night games here. I said last week I didn’t love the underdogs, this week I will be betting all five of these individually in some form. I’m taking the Cardinals seriously as contenders and I still don’t buy that Cleveland is all the way there. Panthers home dawgs to Kirk Cousins? Repeat that sentence. Seahawks aren’t great this year but the Steelers are even more not great. Raiders (a good football team) getting some juice against the Broncos (a bad football team) in a NOBODY BELIEVES IN US F*** JON GRUDEN spot…I love it. And last but not least, Chargers are real contenders taking on a Ravens team that could be sipping their own kool-aid after beating the Chiefs. Not saying this will hit….but I’m more excited for this one by a lot. 82:1, let's let it fly!
Good luck everyone, let me know if you’re riding along (tag me on twitter - @gwizzy12). Keep an eye out for the same game parlay tomorrow.