Wake up babe. SleepersBets are back.
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You know how as you get older, things you used to do very frequently when you were younger start to happen less frequently, and when it’s time to finally do them for the first time in a long time, you’ll have the fleeting thought of “I wonder if I can still do this?”
I feel very old typing that out. But it had been eight months since I had placed a 8-leg football parlay to win ten thousand dollars.
Then last weekend football was back.
The islands. The damn islands. EVERYTHING hits leading up to Hawaii +10.5 against Vanderbilt in the late night game. I’m at a rehearsal dinner for a friend’s wedding. Couldn’t even hedge before they were down 40!
I officially have a grudge against islands in all forms. Long islands, island bois, the New York Islanders, I don’t discriminate.
Fuck islands.
But more importantly, I still got it.
Let’s win some bets.
WEEK ONE BETTING PREVIEW
Here’s everything I’m on this week. (Editor’s note: Greg’s portion was written Tuesday morning so lines may have changed. Greg is on an anniversary getaway with his loving, beautiful wife. A few of these need to hit or no gifts will be exchanged.)
Simple plays that I believe are going to win:
West Virginia +7.5 (-115) at Pitt
This is a very simple “who does Pat Narduzzi think he is” play. The man insinuated he would win the Big Ten every year when he loses 5 games a year in the ACC. They lost to Western Michigan for god’s sake last year. Kenny Pickett is gone and Jordan Addison doesn’t want to play for a loser. 7.5 is a KEY number. Rivalry implications. WEST VIRGINIA HAS COVERED 7.5 IN ELEVEN STRAIGHT BACKYARD BRAWLS. New starter JT Daniels can hoop. This should be close late (if West Virginia doesn’t win outright).
Illinois +3 (-110) at Indiana
I’m not going to try and talk anyone into Illinois being world beaters, but they impressed me week zero. Bret Bielema knows how to win in the Big Ten. I think he’s an upper half coach in the conference right now. Indiana was supposed to be last year’s darling and then they remembered they’re Indiana. There's something to ‘being the team who already won big Week One’ vs. making your debut. Illinois turns a small corner and wins this game.
North Carolina MONEYLINE (-120) at Appalachian State
Around this point in this write-up is where I start to get nervous I’m just picking road underdogs over and over again but here we are. I GET THAT APP STATE IS A HARD PLACE TO PLAY it really is. When these teams last played in 2019, App State won IN CHAPEL HILL. But here's the thing - the biggest power App State has is when they sneak up on teams. This game is a damn pickem! Nobody is sneaking up on Carolina here. The Heels have more talent at every position. Drake Maye looked fantastic in his first start. I’m putting a few chips on Maye being special and leading a massive road win early in his career.
Florida MONEYLINE +125 vs. Utah
This is where I fade myself. I’m super duper in on Utah - in fact I think they win the Pac 12. It’s hard to go toe to toe with Ohio State and dominate like they did in the Rose Bowl. If Cam Rising doesn’t get hurt they win that game 100 times out of 100. But here’s the thing - if Utah’s gonna win the Pac 12 like I think they are, they aren’t going undefeated. They gotta lose somewhere. ENTER THE SWAMP. Anthony Richardson is one of the most talented players in the country. This line feels a bit disrespectful to the Gators as a whole. I think a statement win for Florida is likely here, and it leads to galvanizing Utah into running the table the rest of the season.
Notre Dame +17.5 (-120) at Ohio State
17 points. Is a lot of points. Here is a list of teams that Ohio State didn’t cover 17 against last season: Utah, Michigan, Nebraska (coached by Scott Frost), Penn State, Oregon, Minnesota. Ohio State is talented as hell but I’m not convinced the Ryan Day-era Buckeyes have the killer instinct Urban Meyer’s teams had. I like key numbers - 2 touchdowns and a field goal is a key number. Some juice for Marcus Freeman’s first game will be present. My advice - buy a half a point just to be safe when Ohio State wins this game 44-27.
Parlays, parlays, parlays by G:
The Don’t You Worry Bout a Thing Plus Money Absolutely Can’t Lose Week One Parlay (+117)
Build the bankroll and thank me later. This ain’t missing.
Oklahoma State ML vs. Central Michigan
Michigan State ML vs. Western Michigan
Michigan ML vs. Colorado State
Virginia Tech ML at Old Dominion
UCLA ML vs. Bowling Green
Georgia ML vs. Oregon
Ole Miss ML vs. Troy
Kentucky ML vs. Miami (OH)
Washington ML vs. Kent State
2. The “I Like These Plays Enough To Bet Them Individually and Parlay Them to win 22 Thousand Dollars on a 100 Bet” Parlay (+22562)
See above for reasoning on the top four. Coastal Carolina as a program deserves more respect than being a home pickem against a military academy. North Texas was one of my biggest winners in week zero and I think they’re legitimately good. Mean Green is an elite nickname.
West Virginia ML at Pitt
Illinois ML at Indiana
North Carolina ML at Appalachian State
Florida ML vs. Utah
Coastal Carolina ML vs. Army
North Texas ML vs. SMU
3. The Sprinkle Responsibly Let’s Go Big 5 Moneyline Underdogs Parlay of the Week (+118745)
West Virginia ML at Pitt
North Texas ML vs. SMU
Boise State ML at Oregon State
Hawaii ML vs. Western kentucky
Notre Dame at Ohio State
Listen, while we hate islands, I also love a redemption story. Week Zero the only thing that stood in my way of 10-thousand dollars was Hawaii football. Week One, let’s give them one more shot. $100 to win $118k.
God it’s good to be back. Do me a favor and follow @MultiplicityMG, where you can find more football content from The Sleepers are many of our content friends. Without further ado, here’s Manti Teo with a real girlfriend, Carter Elliott:
Listen again, in typical fashion I am writing this on the night before it’s supposed to be released and as I browse through Greg’s bets I am preparing to praise him for all his great work and research. Unfortunately he wrapped it up referring to me as Manti Teo with a real girlfriend so all my praise for Substack Doug McDermott goes out the window. Now for the bets:
West Virginia +7.5 (-115) at Pitt
A camaraderie play to start of week one is energy we love to see. I am on the same page as Gregory when it comes to Pat Narduzzi. For a man without a seasoning cabinet he loves to act like he’s some type of god. News flash Mr. Narduzzi you are not him! I love to bet rivalry games when the spread is large because for the most part rivalry games remain close. Though Pitt returns a lot of starters you can’t forget what they lost in Pickett and Addison. Keldon Slovis might of had some good years early at USC but let us not forget in his last season at USC he threw 11 TDs and 8 INTs before being benched. He is also going to be in his first year at the helm for Pitt with a new offensive coordinator (who came from Nebraska yuck). I look for JT Daniels to have a big game for WVU behind a veteran offensive line who returns 5 starters. I am comfortable taking WVU with the points in this one.
Purdue +140 vs Penn State.
Anyone who is a fan of the Big Ten knows Purdue is always good for a win at home that they are not supposed to win. Now typically this happens later in the year but with this matchup with Penn State they are going to get it out of the way early. First game of the year and a night game at home for Purdue is the perfect recipe to win this game. Aidan O’Connell has been in college forever it seems and quietly has been one of the best QBs in the Big Ten. He loses his top weapon in David Bell but he still has plenty of options from guys who were contributors last year. Sean Clifford is mid and if you had to create a poster boy for what is a mid QB it would be Clifford. I like Purdue to get it done at home against Coach Franklin and the Nittany Lions.
Utah -3 at Florida
This was a pick originally of mine that I feel even better now that I am going head to head with Gregory. I feel comfortable that Utah wins this game by a touchdown. I love this Utah football team. They have a lot of talent returning and bolster an elite defense (DEFENSE TRAVELS). Down the line I like what Coach Napier can do at Florida but I just think this is too tall of a task to ask them to win their first game with him at the helm. Utah knows this game is important as they can’t take themselves out of the college football playoff picture this early. I like Utah to get the win and cover in “Moist Forestry Area”.
#CartLays below (I put these together earlier and don’t feel like putting the + number but the first one is even moneyish and the next one is little bet to win a lot)
Layup Parlay ($100 wins you $120)
Michigan State ML
Michigan ML
NC State ML
UCLA ML
Ohio State ML
Washington ML
Clemson ML
Western Kentucky ML
Miss State ML
Half Courter Parlay ($85 to win $1,518)
Va Tech ML
Rutgers +7
Houston ML
Arkansas ML
Georgia ML
LSU ML
UNC ML