You're waiting for a plane
that never comes...but it will...but it doesn't...but it will...
Anybody ever seen Inception?
Great movie. Dreams, heists, subconsciousnesses, vengeful lovers, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, it has everything you need. Anyways there’s a reoccurring theme delivered by repeating dialogue in which someone says “you’re waiting for a train”. Actually, it says this:
Long story short not only does the main character not know if the train will ever come, he doesn’t even know if ANYTHING IS FUCKING REAL.
Now, you probably have some questions. Which is why I put together this trusty Q&A cheat sheet to answer everything you might be wondering right now:
Greg, what does any of this have to do with betting on sports?
Fantastic question - it’s a long-winded motif. Just wait.
Why did the subject of this newsletter say “plane” if the story is about a train?
Because Carter Elliott is currently stuck at the airport, six hours after his flight to Seattle was supposed to leave, and he has now found out his flight won’t leave until the morning.
Wasn't that girl from Juno in Inception?
YES! Ellen Page.
Isn’t Ellen Page now a man?
YES! Elliot Page
Is Boo Buie really better than AJ Hoggard?
YES! But more on that over the next few weeks, I don’t have time to explain, I have to bring this full circle.
Ok Greg, that’s all great, but seriously what the fuck does any of this have to do with betting on sports?
I THOUGHT YOU’D NEVER ASK!
Look, the past seven weeks have not been easy. It’s hard to make your living doing sports (and sports betting) content 14 hours a day, 7 days a week and be stuck. I’m wired to always be wanting to spend every waking moment that I’m not with my lovely wife thinking about sports. So when we keep finding ourselves on the wrong end of bets week after week after week, it starts to make you question everything.
But I just keep waiting.
I keep telling myself “it’’ll be this week. You know too much about sports for this to keep happening. You work too hard for this to keep happening. You’re just…due”.
But I just keep waiting.
I keep thinking I’ll get to a point where on a Friday I’ll just lose all interest in football. That maybe one day I’ll just wait up and not be excited for Saturday.
But I just keep waiting.
I keep telling myself that if I just BELIEVE it hard enough, I’ll have a weekend so perfectly full of winning bets that I’ll re-gain that love that I’ve always had. To be honest, it’s been such an unbelievable cold streak that I’ve started to wonder “is this even real?”
And I just keep waiting.
It’s like I’m waiting for a train. Or a plane. Or just one. fucking. winning. day.
I know where I hope that day will take me, but I can’t be sure. Yet it doesn’t matter. Why?
Because we’ll bet together.
Onto the picks.
Subscribe to our Sleepers Media YouTube channel - this week we correctly wondered what’s wrong with Cade Cunningham. Next week we’ll address those Boo Buie thoughts.
SINGLE PLAYS I WOULD NORMALLY FEEL GREAT ABOUT IF I COULD HIT A BET:
Tennessee +7 vs. Alabama
With all due respect to Bama, this ain’t normal Bama. They beat Texas by ONE POINT without Quinn Ewers. They needed a 4th and goal stop against Texas A&M with their 2nd best QB to escape with a win. Bryce Young is likely still very hurt even if he plays. And Tennessee is GOOD. I’m sprinting Vols ML, but I love anything +7 or above.
Clemson -3.5 at Florida State
I gotta give Carter some credit here - he nailed Florida State when they got destroyed by Wake Forest. He said something like “when they have to play a real team with talent that can throw the ball they’ll get ran out”. DJ Uiageyeldirrfieayayayle has been quietly superb this year and Clemson’s faster and stronger at every spot. Blowout loading in my eyes.
USC +3.5 at Utah
I’ve avoided and/or faded the Trojans for long enough this season - I worry that Vegas wants us to bet USC based on this line, but I think it’s a gift. Utah has suffered two losses to teams with less talent than USC already and anytime USC gets in a sticky spot Caleb Williams goes Superman mode and they win by three scores. I can’t avoid it anymore. Go Trojans.
VARIOUS PARLAYS YOU ARE WELCOME TO JOIN ME ON:
The Basketball School Parlay: (+29478) - worth a sprinkle
Kentucky ML vs. Mississippi State
Michigan State ML vs. Wisconsin
Kansas ML vs. Oklahoma
Illinois ML vs. Minnesota
Duke ML vs. North Carolina
Mid-range winner winner parlay: (+474) - a very reasonable cash
Michigan ML vs. Penn State
BYU ML vs. Arkansas
Washington ML vs. Arizona
Clemson ML vs. Florida State
Purdue ML vs. Nebraska
Way way way weirder things have happened longshot parlay: (+27440) - I like our chances to hit 2-3 of these minimum
Iowa State ML vs. Texas
Stanford ML vs. Notre Dame
USC ML vs. Utah
Washington State ML vs. Oregon State
Without further ado, here’s AJ Hoggard if AJ Hoggard could actually hoop:
Adversity has struck the Elliott family. Delta Airlines is going to have to answer for their sins. I was supposed to leave for Seattle last night at 6pm, which became 8pm, then 11pm…and then cancelled all together. We were given a hotel voucher to the finest Wyndam Garden hotel in the state and though our hotel room smelled and had the feel of an asylum, I survived and I am typing this at gate A20 at Detroit Metro. BUT THE POSITIVE OF THIS IS!!!!! I had ample time to research and examine this slate. And now that you have heard from Pickleball Aaron Craft we can get to the picks (Please note I don’t want to give you the same picks as Greg but I LOVE Clemson -3.5):
Kansas +9 at Oklahoma
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it”-Dave Waddell. In a year of betting tribulations Kansas has been a bright spot. When they aren’t winning games as underdogs outright they are covering, it’s the Jayhawk way. Oklahoma to be is a team that shouldn’t be favored by this number vs any team with a pulse. They were dog walked by TCU and Texas in the past 2 weeks and have the look of a broken team. Though Kansas will be without their starter Jalon Daniels, Jason Bean is no slouch. He threw for 4 TDs last week in a close loss vs TCU. Oklahoma MAY stop the bleeding and get a home win but the Jayhawks are too gritty and talented to let this game get out of hand. I like the Jayhawks to cover 9.
NC State +3.5 at Syracuse
Hello and welcome to the Carter Elliott eye test. I have bet against Syracuse and lost to be honest with you 3 or 4 times this year but from that came a theme. Syracuse does not win football games, their opponent gives it to them. Between Purdue and Virginia I can’t rap my head around how these teams self destructed and I was not impressed by Syracuse. NC State has held their own defensively this year against some quality opponents and even with their QB Devin Leary possibly out I think they can still battle and win this game outright even.
Georgia -38 vs Vanderbilt
My mother did not go through hours of labor to birth an individual that is scared of big spreads. Last year Georgia was favored by 36 and won 62-0. This years Georgia team might be better and newsflash Vanderbilt did not get better. I expect Georgia to run away with this game and cover this large spread. Also for context in Vanderbilt’s 3 losses vs top teams they are giving up 50 points a game. Georgia will score at MINIMUM 50 and I see Vanderbilt MAYBE scoring 10. Simple math…that’s a cover…take Georgia.
Typing that out felt like 3-0. Take that for what it is worth. Gregory’s picks are great as well and I love the parlays. A great man once said “Generational wealth is obtainable if you utilize the Sleepers Newsletter correctly” and yes that great man is me and yes I’m not lying…be great this weekend and let’s win some money.