The red pill or the blue pill?
The choice is yours.
Last Saturday night I went to a function. Friends and family and friends of family and family of friends were there. Celebrating things. Important things. There were drinks and hugs and pictures and football was on. It was an all around beautiful day.
After a certain time, the function winded down as functions do. Friends and family and friends of family and family of friends said their goodbyes and headed home. I imagine most of these good people had their fill of excitement for the day. I imagine most of these good people were fulfilled. They probably arrived home, brushed their teeth and let their heads hit the pillow with a sense of satisfaction that only comes from one thing.
The blue pill.
For those of you that are reading this and 1) haven’t already sent this to junk and 2) don’t get the reference, the red pill and the blue pill is a philosophical dilemma brought to light in the movie The Matrix. Legend has it that we are each living with a choice - to take the red pill would be to learn a potentially unsettling or life-changing truth. To take the blue pill would be to live in committed ignorance for the remainder of time.
You see, those beautiful people at the function? I love them dearly. But they live their lives under the spell of the blue pill.
Me (and my Sleepers co-conspirator Carter) on the other hand? We took the red pill long ago. The red pill that is the excitement of Saturdays that exist for the rush of sweating out a $40 parlay to win $19.2 thousand dollars (that was sent in last week’s newsletter) in a basement until 3am EST.
You’ll never know true euphoria until you’re watching Georgia Southern rush the field as Sad Scott Frost trots off, realizing all that’s left for like 4+ months of salary in one night is Arizona ML, and goddammit they have a 7-6 lead.
Things went downhill from there, or so that’s what they tell me. But I can tell you one thing friends - we’ve never been closer to the truth.
Onto the picks.
Individual plays I’ll be on worth writing one sentence about:
Purdue +1.5 (-110) at Syracuse - Aidan O’Connell is too good to start a season 1-2, sell high spot on Syracuse, as long as AOC avoids getting hit by a Jim Boehiem-driven vehicle before kickoff I like his chances.
Auburn +3 (-115) vs. Penn State - The wrong team is favored here and I still can’t figure out why - Sean Clifford is like the hand-me-down desk that your parents made you take to your first apartment because “it used to be grandpa’s” but it has no practical use anymore other than being old.
OVER 52.5 - Mississippi State / LSU - I typically stay away from Over/Unders so you know if I’m betting one it’s for good reason. Both these teams average 44 PPG and give up 20 PPG. Easy over.
UNDER 56.5 - Michigan State / Washington - See above. MSU’s defense is legit (13 points given up all year) and their offensive concerns…..are legit too. Thorne can’t be trusted across the country in a night game. Toss-up on who wins, either way I like the Under easily.
Western Michigan +10.5 (-110) vs. Pitt - Classic Pat Narduzzi emotional let down spot. His entire Fake Tough Guy schtick doesn’t work if Pitt doesn't lose to cupcakes too.
UTSA +12.5 (-110) at Texas - TEXAS IS WITHOUT QUINN EWERS AND MIGHT BE WITHOUT THEIR BACKUP HUDSON CARD AND UTSA QB FRANK HARRIS IS A SUPERSTAR AND IS GOOD ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM IN ANY GAME. PLAY OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK.
Fresno State +11.5 (-110) at USC - Everyone and their momma is sipping the USC kool-aid. I actually bought some kool-aid this week - still fire by the way. It was blue. Jake Haener is good. This feels like the night game that fools everyone.
The Let’s Get Nasty Underdog Parlay (+147564):
BYU ML at Oregon
Auburn ML vs. Penn State
Western Michigan ML vs. Pitt
UTSA ML at Texas
Miami FL ML at Texas A&M
Fresno State ML at USC
$50 to win $73,832.16. At minimum 3 of these hit.
The Ghost of Scott Frost Parlay That Actually Could Hit (+49047):
Purdue ML at Syracuse
Nebraska ML vs. Oklahoma
Houston ML vs. Kansas
Texas Tech ML at NC State
Michigan State ML at Washington
Fresno State ML at USC
$100 to win $49,047. Get me to that Fresno game and let’s rock.
Fuck it, take the red pill (+24540):
California ML at Notre Dame
Texas Tech ML at NC State
Nevada ML at Iowa
Very much in line with the almost-hit parlay last week. Fade three teams we know stink and are vulnerable to a massive upset.
And now the moment you’ve all been waiting for, here’s Cory from That’s So Raven with a ring light:
Why is it that every time I go to type this newsletter I must enter to slander from a man who is shaped like he takes pride in finding the lowest oil change prices in the city. Despite the nickname from bearded Steven Izzo I have some winning picks for yall this week. And first and foremost accept my apology for only providing one pick last week (though it was winner), Mary Rose didn’t birth her only and oldest son to provide only one pick. Let’s get into it:
Michigan State +135 at Washington
CaRTer ThATs A HoMEr PiCK. Blah blah blah if you stop talking for a second I will explain to you why this is great value and a game Michigan State will win. State’s current strength is their defense in particular their defensive line. They have a rotation or guys who are biting at the bit to get after the QB and that is what will be required out of them going up against the dynamic Michael Pennix Jr. Pennix Jr. has looked great this year but he’s been able to drop back and throw untouched and not under pressure. State’s ability to get after the QB will cause inaccurate throws from Pennix Jr and some of those may even turn into turnovers. On the offensive side of the ball Payton Thorne has struggled a bit to start the year but this is a game where he can use his experience to realize we don’t need him to play hero ball. Ball security and game management is what we need from Payton and let the defense rock. The Spartans pick up a marquee road victory in this game.
Auburn +3 vs Penn State
What do Sean Clifford and Qdoba have in common? They are both extremely mid. The fact that I can get Auburn +3 at home vs a Sean Clifford led team is what betting dreams are made of folks. Auburn at home, Tank Bigsby, War Eagle. Auburn is also worth a sprinkle in this game folks.
USC -11 vs Fresno State
Gregory Gregory Gregory. When will you learn that the C in USC stands for Cover. This USC offense will always give them life to cover and they are playing a defense that would not be able to check me. They are atrocious. Look for USC’s offense to get it rolling early at home and for the defense to get them enough stops to cover in this game easily.
South Alabama +15.5 vs UCLA
South Alabama is a sneaky fun good team to watch this year (yes I said that and I mean it). They have a veteran offense that can put points on the board and quietly have a defense that currently ranks in the top 20. UCLA has looked good through the start but I can see them taking this Jaguar team lightly and this game being close. Take South Alabama with the points.
Punish the Bookie Parlay (+2961)
Purdue +105
North Texas +125
Auburn +125
Miami FL +195
$50 to win $1,480. Books got these lines wrong so we make them pay.
Chief Keef Parlay (+10757)
South Alabama +450
Western Michigan +320
UTSA +370
$50 to win $5,378. All +300 and above dogs word to Chief Keef.
Enjoy the Saturday folks. Let’s win some money shall we.